J.Bastardi--always entertaining

#1 Postby **Vortex** » Sat Oct 04, 2003 5:23 pm

I admit he's awfully entertaining....I'm laughing here hysterically because since May 20th I can't recall reading his posts and him not forecasting something to develop

Well his latest forecast is development possible next week or the week after in the western carribean. His words "I'm uping the ante on the western carribean" lol....Anyways hope everyone is having a nice weekend.

weatherluvr · #2 Postby **weatherluvr** » Sat Oct 04, 2003 7:59 pm

Well, since he charges people for his forecasts I guess he has to add some herbs and spices to his outlooks.

john186292 · #3 Postby **john186292** » Sat Oct 04, 2003 8:08 pm

Anyone anywhere keep a record of his forcast accuracy?
Just like i have seen for the cpr models?

would be easy to post "miles of error" for each storm.

any fan willing to do this?
This would bring science to bear, and end the "sport fan type of arguing " about his ability.
John new orleans

Colin · #4 Postby **Colin** » Sat Oct 04, 2003 9:02 pm

Sometimes he's good, sometimes he's horrific. :roll:

DelStormLover · #5 Postby **DelStormLover** » Sat Oct 04, 2003 9:05 pm

He was on a good frcsting streak the most recent winter.......Then again, this winter was cold and snowy, JB allways forecasts cold and snow.
So, it couldve been a case of dumb luck.

john186292 · #6 Postby **john186292** » Sat Oct 04, 2003 9:21 pm

Does anyone ever do the fcst accuracy test i hoped for above?

No one seems to know of such.

Is there a gentlemen's agreement to not hold anyone up to embarassing tests of forcasts?

I could understand that, but I can't allow it...lives are at stake. Just as doctors need to have their judgement examined...lives are at stake, and old boy mutual protection deals are no good.
Other nations supervise doctors...we ought to examine forcast accuracy, and doctors too.

#7 Postby **george_r_1961** » Sat Oct 04, 2003 9:29 pm

I really hate to flame a professional met here but Bastardi has this annoying tendency to develop every puff of clouds into a storm. Then when something does materialize he gloats aver his "forecast".

Mr Bob · #8 Postby **Mr Bob** » Sat Oct 04, 2003 9:50 pm

george_r_1961 wrote:IThen when something does materialize he gloats aver his "forecast".

Welcome to the world of pro mets...It is what we do!

However, keep in mind he is trying to sell a service and in this day and age if you ain't got the bling...you ain't got a thing. It is no different with Larry Cosgrove...how many people would read his daily summary if there was never a storm of the age brewing.

Derecho · #9 Postby **Derecho** » Sat Oct 04, 2003 10:31 pm

john186292 wrote:Anyone anywhere keep a record of his forcast accuracy?
Just like i have seen for the cpr models?

would be easy to post "miles of error" for each storm.

Physically impossible since Busturdi doesn't actually do any track forecasting; just long, rambling essays containing various desciptions of possible tracks with varying, but typically high, degrees of vagueness.

NHC does a precise forecast of a lat-lon position and a precise intensity out to 120 hours 4 times a day.

JB doesn't. (Nor does Smack-u-Weather, publicly, at least) Without lat-longs there's no way to calculate an track error.

Somehow they all manage to brag when they perceived they've "beaten" NHC even though they don't have actual forecasts.

weatherluvr · #10 Postby **weatherluvr** » Sat Oct 04, 2003 10:55 pm

What's amazing is that there are people who absolutely worship him and jump on every one of his predictions like a camel to water. No disrespect intended towards him, but some of his predictions should at least warrant a second or third opinion from some other experts.

#11 Postby **Steve** » Sun Oct 05, 2003 2:14 am

I'm catching Joe's back here. Derecho, your attack on him was typical and is pretty unfair. His landfall intensity forecast was vastly superior to anything that came from the 'official' sources and you can't deny that in any way, shape or form. While he notes all possibilities, his track record for hitting on development areas is BY FAR the best in the business. Whether that be amateur (www stuff) or professional, I challenge you to put up anyone else's seasonal forecast (except mine which was the best of them all) against Joe's. It ain't gonna happen.

Say what you want about the official forecasts, but they are self actualizing. You don't have to look any further than this week when they had to wipe egg off their faces with Kate. They handed her off to the HPC only to see her develop into (at least) a strong Cat 3. However, they took their time in upping her to a 3 for what? Bogus 100%. They also downplay every threat that anyone (including you and I) can see on the horizon offering little more than "tropical development is not expected through xday". Now look at Claudette. The evidence shows that Claudette was likely a Cat 2 at landfall, but they refused to acknowledge that because they didn't predict it. Their agenda forces a degree of subjectivity that should not be present in 2003 when scientific objectivity should be the rule. Further, there were several delays in reporting recon information throughout the season only once involving techincal difficulties. If you can't question that stuff, you're not worthy of the arrogance in many of your posts. You should know better than to blindly follow the TPC and I think you do.

Having said that, the National Hurricane Center did an excellent job this year with Isabel and Fabien. Their tracks were unbelievable.

Now Joe hits stuff within a couple of hundred miles from 8 or 9 days out. He was calling for Isabel's landfall when the official forecasts were out to sea. He called Claudette and Erika days ahead of the TPC. He beat them on Bill noting him from 2 weeks before he formed. He had Larry pegged from 15-18 days ago. Dispute it if you want but you will only be proving your disdain for him. In 2002, he was amazing with Lili and Isidore and perfomed much better from DAYS out with his Louisiana landfall calls.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
As to the comment of Joe always predicting cold and snowy winters, that's wrong too. He not only gives you where it's going to be cold and snowy, he gives you frozen precpipitation zones that did pretty dogone well last year. FWIW, his winter hint from this year is that it's not going to be a particularly obnoxious winter based on two factors - warmer than average water in the Gulf of Alaska and off the NE coast of the US. He offered profiles from other seasons to back it up. While some will be colder than average - no doubt - this isn't apparently shaping up as one of those years to remember overall for the whole country.

Yeah, like I said, I have Joe's back. He's better than any hothead on S2K or anywhere else on the web. I don't want to hear about a storm he blew back in 1980 or 1985. He's done pretty damn good the last few years though. Anyone with even half a brain would acknowledge that if they were interested in being fair.

Steve

Thunder44 · #12 Postby **Thunder44** » Sun Oct 05, 2003 5:05 am

Steve, Storm2k defintely has a grude with Accuweather. I'm not sure why why but I don't believe it has anything to do with their forecasts. This is not meant to be offensive, but I would take their forecasts over what comes from this site anyday. So I wouldn't pay much attention to the bashing of Accuwx that often goes on here.

Rainband · #13 Postby **Rainband** » Sun Oct 05, 2003 5:24 am

Thunder44 wrote:Steve, Storm2k defintely has a grude with Accuweather. I'm not sure why why but I don't believe it has anything to do with their forecasts. This is not meant to be offensive, but I would take their forecasts over what comes from this site anyday. So I wouldn't pay much attention to the bashing of Accuwx that often goes on here.

One posters opinion doesn't mean S2K has a grudge/.. I'd be careful making that unfair and unaacurate assumption! :roll:

I happen to like JB and so does Ticka Chad and Marshall if I am not mistaken

Thunder44 · #14 Postby **Thunder44** » Sun Oct 05, 2003 5:58 am

Well, Rainband, ok to be fair you and others are the exceptions, but an overwhelming majority here seem to post on this board and moderate, don't and I don't see many defending them either. I'm not basing that just one poster's opinion.

#15 Postby **Downdraft** » Sun Oct 05, 2003 6:36 am

Joe's big secret to success comes from his "all scenario's" approach. He simply gives every possibility and then when one of them finally hits thumps his chest and says look I called this weeks ago. He and InAccurate Weather love to trash the NWS and he in particular jump all over the NHC. That alone gets him quite a following on here and other boards. These guys in State College would love nothing more than to privatize the weather service, get rid of the NWS and charge you for the same services provided. I do enjoy reading Joe for a laugh but then again I like Dilbert too. :lol:

rainstorm · #16 Postby **rainstorm** » Sun Oct 05, 2003 6:52 am

jb is king!!

caneman · #17 Postby **caneman** » Sun Oct 05, 2003 7:03 am

Personally, I think some of it is jealousy. While he does tend to overdevelop phantom systems, he more often than not discovers patterns and development potential before anyone else does. I'd rather someone give me all options and watch for the cues to see if it evolves then read a NHC TWO that says no development and 12 hours later you have development. By the time NHC jumps on board 99% of people on all weather boards already know development is taking place.

Derek Ortt · #18 Postby **Derek Ortt** » Sun Oct 05, 2003 7:19 am

Steve,

NHC adjusts their tracks after the season and that is what is used for verification. The comitee also includes some people from HRD, so there is some objectivity and often there are 30KT changes in intensity from the adbisory intensity (ex Floyd during the eye wall cycle)

As for Claudette, I have checked much of the data and have found no category 2 sustained winds, nor have I found a category 2 storm surge. The reaosn for the damage was that the residents had a major brain cramp and were making their preparations during the eye wall. The damage was due to no preparation, not due to a strong storm

Mr Bob · #19 Postby **Mr Bob** » Sun Oct 05, 2003 8:27 am

caneman wrote:Personally, I think some of it is jealousy. While he does tend to overdevelop phantom systems, he more often than not discovers patterns and development potential before anyone else does. I'd rather someone give me all options and watch for the cues to see if it evolves then read a NHC TWO that says no development and 12 hours later you have development. By the time NHC jumps on board 99% of people on all weather boards already know development is taking place.

NHC is here to serve the public not to make sure that every weather hobbyist gets instant satifaction from every burst of deep convection that fires in a tropical system. Tropical systems cannot be judged on one hour intervals until landfall is imminent. This is what gets most enthusiasts as well as mets in trouble. TD 9 this season was an excellent example of this. The system looked good on sat pics though no system had ever developed in the far eastern Carribbean. NHC overreacted and named a depression without the aid of recon only to find the next day that nothing was there. I am willing to wager that some of this was due to the overwhelming pressure from the "I need to know it now" society.

As for JB, he really knows his stuff and most people in the met community cannot deny it. People are definintely jealous of that. But he is locked in at Accuweather while the Jim Cantores of the world are in everyone's home or out in the hurricane as it makes landfall. I think jealousy goes both ways and is sometimes reflected in the gloating style that can occur.

#20 Postby **wxman57** » Sun Oct 05, 2003 8:45 am

Steve wrote: He had Larry pegged from 15-18 days ago.

I watch JB every morning and read his column. He was insistent that Larry would turn NE and hit Florida as a hurricane. He said Henri would hit Florida as a hurricane and move up the east coast (1 of 2 there). In 2001, he forecsat Michelle to hit Florida and move up the east coast. He does seem to have a bias toward bringing storms inland along the east coast.

But his value is that he discusses every disturbance in the tropics. Little gets by him as far as identifying possible development. We find him quite entertaining at the office, but his forecasts are taken with a grain of salt.

J.Bastardi--always entertaining

J.Bastardi--always entertaining

Bastardi

Re: Bastardi

Shotgun Forecasting

Who is online