in area of interest to various models:
http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseasthurrir.html
CHECK CONVECTION BURST AT 81 W. CARIBBEAN........
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dixiebreeze
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lilbump3000 wrote:Could be models have been detecting that area every now and then with a low pressure forming pushing NW.
And that area is bigger than and almost as organized as Larry!
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HurricaneQueen
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Models beginning to vary their solutions a bit. Larry piece/NW Carib energy being moved toward South Florida then NOGAPS holds off developing a low until its near the Bahamas and moving slowly NE/N off the Georgia coast. GFS develops a low near the Bahamas, but from the east (there is a small circulation out there) 
NOGAPS then develops several areas by 144 hours, with a surface low off the east coast seemingly trapped from moving north by a ridge, while developing a low in the SW Caribbean. NOTE: The 12Z NOGAPS backed off from developing the western Caribbean low at 72 hours, but has this new one at 144. Also closes a couple of lows in the Atlantic during this period. Haven't looked past 24 hours of the GFS (dial up 
) so don't know what that's showing. Lots of hinting but no consistency yet.
NOGAPS then develops several areas by 144 hours, with a surface low off the east coast seemingly trapped from moving north by a ridge, while developing a low in the SW Caribbean. NOTE: The 12Z NOGAPS backed off from developing the western Caribbean low at 72 hours, but has this new one at 144. Also closes a couple of lows in the Atlantic during this period. Haven't looked past 24 hours of the GFS (dial up ) so don't know what that's showing. Lots of hinting but no consistency yet.
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