Larry has been moving ESE!
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caneman
Larry has been moving ESE!
Has went .4 South and .8 East. from 11:00 last night til the 8:00 advisory this morning. Clearly ESE. COuld the AVN from last night turn out right. COuld this end up in the NW caribbean? PErhaps this is the system a couple models had been picking up on on the NW Caribb. Interesting.
Last edited by caneman on Sat Oct 04, 2003 7:36 am, edited 1 time in total.
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cycloneye
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Let's see where the position at 10 AM CDT will be and see if a true direction is seen or the stall continues.
Last edited by cycloneye on Sat Oct 04, 2003 7:42 am, edited 1 time in total.
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caneman
And would represent a whole new ballgame. Not sure if this is temporary but 9 hours would seem more like a trend. NHC has went from SW to South to now SSE movement when clearly it's been more ESE or SE all along. I suppose they like to keep continuity without jumping all over the place. 11:00 Advisory should be interesting.
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weatherluvr
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donsutherland1
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Re: Larry has been moving ESE!
Caneman,
Given the very weak steering currents and some influence from a trough, it is not entirely surprising that Larry has drifted a little to the east in recent hours. It has been moving eratically for some time, so this is not a significant development with huge ramifications for Florida or the eastern Gulf States.
Although, this drift might alter its final point of landfall to some extent, it remains extremely likely that landfall will still occur in Mexico.
Moreover, the trough's influence will diminish later today and tomorrow as the trough moves away from Larry. It will not be able to take hold of Larry (too small, too far south) and recurve it. Thus, odds remain very much against Larry's ever moving into the northwestern Caribbean.
Finally, when it comes to such storms that drift almost aimlessly in the BOC, it can be tempting to conclude that each shift in track holds new possibilities. Even the computer models can sometimes have difficulty handling such storms, resulting in poor run-to-run consistency at times--which, for the most part, has not yet been the case with regard to Larry. Thus, historical seasonal climatology offers important guidance to help deal with the uncertainty. Combined, these tools suggest a Mexico landfall appears all but certain and a move into the northwestern Caribbean appears remote.
Given the very weak steering currents and some influence from a trough, it is not entirely surprising that Larry has drifted a little to the east in recent hours. It has been moving eratically for some time, so this is not a significant development with huge ramifications for Florida or the eastern Gulf States.
Although, this drift might alter its final point of landfall to some extent, it remains extremely likely that landfall will still occur in Mexico.
Moreover, the trough's influence will diminish later today and tomorrow as the trough moves away from Larry. It will not be able to take hold of Larry (too small, too far south) and recurve it. Thus, odds remain very much against Larry's ever moving into the northwestern Caribbean.
Finally, when it comes to such storms that drift almost aimlessly in the BOC, it can be tempting to conclude that each shift in track holds new possibilities. Even the computer models can sometimes have difficulty handling such storms, resulting in poor run-to-run consistency at times--which, for the most part, has not yet been the case with regard to Larry. Thus, historical seasonal climatology offers important guidance to help deal with the uncertainty. Combined, these tools suggest a Mexico landfall appears all but certain and a move into the northwestern Caribbean appears remote.
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ColdFront77