5 AM on Kate, larry, Nora, and Olaf....

[WXBUFFJIM]

Good morning everyone. The tropics are quite active. Kate remains a major hurricane this morning. Nora became a hurricane about 6 hours ago and continues to strengthen. Nora and Larry remain tropical storms at this time.

Detailing the specifics, first on Major hurricane Kate, the third major hurricane of the 2003 Atlantic hurricane season. At 5 AM EDT, the center of Hurricane Kate was centered about 755 miles east southeast of Bermuda.

Kate is moving more north of due west at this time. A west northwest track has commenced this morning and the forward speed is near 13 mph. A general turn toward the northwest should begin during the next 24-36 hours. I suggest keeping an eye on this in New Founderland. Even though it may already lose tropical characteristics, the wind and the heavy rains are still in place. Something to watch.

Maximum sustained winds are near 115 mph with higher gusts. Kate is expected to maintain it's current intensity for the next24 hours followed by some weakening after that. Minimum central pressure is estimated at 962 mb or 28.41 inches.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html the infrared satellite loop of Kate this morning shows little change in organization except the turn towards the west northwest and the satellite eclipse at the beginning of the loop. Kate remains a classic hurricane in the Atlantic.

Elsewhere in the tropics, Tropical storm larry remains a concern for the Mexican coast in areas around the Bay Of Campeche. At 5 AM EDT, a tropical storm warning and a hurricane watch are in effect in a wider area from Tuxpan to Campeche, MX. The watch and warning was extended to Tuxpan last evening at 11 PM EDT. A tropical storm warning means tropical storm conditions are expected withi 24 hours or less. A hurricane watch means hurricane conditions are possible within 36 hours.

At 4 AM CDT, 5 AM EDT, the center of Tropical storm Larry was located about 145 miles east of Veracruz, Mexico.

Larry has been showing little movement at all over the past several hours. A drift toward the south is expected later today. However once again the movement is not fast. Thus whoever is getting prolonged heavy rains will continue to see that I'm afraid. As much as 12000 people were sent to government shelters and this may only be the beginning of this huge flood event. Add to that the usual October wet season. It looks to be unbelievably bad I'm afraid.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph with higher gusts. Larry could strengthen some over the next 24 hours. A recon plane measured a minimum central pressure of 994 mb or 29.35 inches.

Coastal storm surge flooding of 1-2 feet above normal is expected today accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves. An additional 2-3 feet of storm surge can be expected near and on the western side of the storm, west of where the center makes landfall given the onshore wind component. Offshore winds don't cause ocean surge. In addition once again very heavy and devastating rains can be expected. With a storm this slow moving, rainfall amounts could easily exceed 2 feet and come close to 3 feet in some areas. That added to the usual rains from the wet season spells the potential for serious and life threatening flash flooding and life threatening and destructive mudslides.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html shows the infrared satellite imaginary of Tropical storm Larry. The inner core structure looks better established on satellite today and thus some signs of strengthening.

Meanwhile Nora is a hurricane in the eastern Pacific with maximum sustained wind of 85 mph and a movement toward the northwest at around 12 mph. Olaf has maximum sustained winds of nearly 50 mph with a northwest motion at around 5 mph. Olaf could also become a hurricane over the next few days.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html satellite imaginary this morning shows both Nora and Olaf in the east Pacific and Larry in the Bay Of Campeche. It's not everyday we see a triangle of tropical weather activity fairly close together.

That's your tropical update for this time. More later.

Jim

[AussieMark]

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<I>Good morning everyone. It's a weekend, the first one of October and the tropics refuse to give up. Kate remains a major hurricane this morning. Nora became a hurricane about 6 hours ago and continues to strengthen. Nora and Larry remain tropical storms at this time.
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