NOT every early OCT system in the Gulf is Next OPAL

[Guest]

Once again the lessons of Isabel are missed by some well known Meterologists out there who are catering to the weather hobbyists out there....

why is it that every single storm in the Gof M is IMMEDIATELY
compared to Opal?

why is it that every hurricane in the GULF in early OCT is somehow
PROOF or a clue that its "Just like 1995 all over again and you know
what that means.... another record snowfall winter in the Northeast!!!??"

The speculation that larry was / is going to Move up the east coast and /or become the next OPAL is way OUT there... and a little
sad ...

TS Larry will likely drift into Mexico or die.

How all this BS about the next OPAL got started is an EXACT repeat of the isabel Fiasco. The Sunday before Isabel made landfall... several of the Medium range (MR) Models shifted the track UP the east coast and showed a landfall on the 12z sunday run at or near capemay NJ.

However the 5Pm TPC sunday discussion made a major point that the sunday 12z MR models were mssing ket data from bermuda and as a result the shift in the track to NJ and NYC was unlikely to be correct.

Sure enough the 18z and 00z Monday runs all showed a strong west shift and this trend continued for SEVERAL more model runs. However by this time accu-weather and the Big news stations in the northeast were banging on the cape may NJ hit until the Tuesday before landfall.

It was pefectly reasonable for a forecaster to say well maybe the shift in the Isabel track into NJ IS correct. However by Monday morning it was clear that the sunday 12z Models DID have a bad track b/c of the Missing data.

By Midday Monday however the cape may NJ landfall was STILL being Pushed by some even though Cape may has NEVER been hit by a Hurricane directly from 1904 to 2003.... while cape hatteras has been hit what 100 times?

With Larry we did have 2 runs of the Canadian fro 4 days ago (!!!!)
that showed Larry moving up the east coast ...

of course NO other model showed that and the scenario barely
showed up as a viable idea on ANY of the 16 GGEM ensembles 51 Ecmwf ensembles.... 10 Nogaps ensembles or the 00z and 12z 22 member GFS ensembles...

So lets see thats a total of 121 models vs. 2 runs of the Operational
Canadian.... I dunno may be it is Juts me but dont you think a little
skepticism might be in order?

[donsutherland1]

Great post!

Given the models, seasonal climatology, and history of Bay of Campeche storms (particularly those below 21N latitude), the Opal scenario was/is exceptionally remote.

[Guest]

Wow.........I second that............Great post DT!!!!!!

And a very good point as well............I have yet to figure out why some people do that................I have some ideas which i wont get into here but you pretty much covered it!!!!!!!..........Hopefully a few will get the point here that you are making because its very bad imo to make a call off of one or two models that shows something for just a day or so which i believe i posted about during Isabel........................

[JetMaxx]

Excellent post DT...

Even a newbie with no knowledge of operational meteorology (if they were old enough in 1995 to remember) that just before Opal it was warm and sultry in Georgia and South Carolina....muggy and humid.

Compare that to this week...near record cold temperatures and frost warnings for NE Georgia and upstate SC. Totally opposite of early October 1995.

Opal was a very rare event....not only the track from the BOC to Pensacola, but Opal was BY FAR the most intense October hurricane of record for that portion of the GOM. There have been very few 130 mph hurricanes in the central GOM in early October....and never a 155 mph hurricane (my analysis based on peak 10,000' flight level winds of 152 kts and 916 mb central pressure).

[cycloneye]

That was excellent to read DT congrats for that clear picture that you stated about the difference between OPAL in 95 and Larry in 03.

[AussieMark]

That's correct

Its like saying that the next October tropical wave to arrive in the Eastern Caribbean Sea is going to be another Hazel.

Or the next Tropical wave in the western Caribbean during October is going to be another Mitch.

As each storm is unique and the conditions in place to form make it come aboutare also unique. They can slightly be similar but never identical.

[Aquawind]

Ohh Yea..put the hammer down and end that speculation..

[ColdFront77]

I agree as well.

The more impressive storms are remembered more than all the other systems, even tropical storms that have developed in the Atlantic, Caribbean Sea, Gulf of Mexico and Bay of Campeche.