http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphic ... 2058.shtml?
The predicted track for Kate puts her square onto Newfoundland on Monday night/Tuesday morning. What are the odds of 2 Canadian landfalls in one season?
BTW, she looks like the perfect little Hurricane.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html
Another Canadian Hurricane?
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Another Canadian Hurricane?
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george_r_1961
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Scary isnt it..especially since Kate is now a Cat 3. Hopefully the center will pass just to the east of Newfoundland sparing them the strongest winds.Kate should be transitioning into an extratropical cyclone as she passes near or over the island..this could make forecasting her track and intensity even more difficult. So residents of eastern Newfoundland should prepare for hurricane conditions late Monday or Tuesday.
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montrealboy
- Tropical Storm
- Posts: 172
- Joined: Mon Sep 15, 2003 6:39 pm
- Location: Montreal, Quebec, Canada
Canadian Hurricane Center Statement
http://www.atl.ec.gc.ca/weather/hurrica ... letin.html
(...)
CANADIAN HURRICANE INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA
AT 9.00 PM ADT FRIDAY
03 OCTOBER 2003.
THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 3.00 AM ADT
... KATE IS CONTINUING TO TRACK WEST....
(...)
3. PUBLIC WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY
NO IMPACTS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY. IN THE LONGER RANGE...
THE FORECAST TRACK OF KATE BRINGS THE STORM CENTRE CLOSE ENOUGH TO NEWFOUNDLAND ON MONDAY TO THREATEN THAT PROVINCE WITH PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN. AMOUNTS OF 50 TO 80 MM ARE LIKELY NEAR THE PATH OF THE
STORM. MORE DETAILS ON THE INLAND EFFECTS OF KATE WILL NOT BE
POSSIBLE UNTIL THE STORM BEGINS ITS EXPECTED RECURVATURE TOWARDS THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OVER THE WEEKEND. PUBLIC INTERESTS SHOULD MONITOR THESE BULLETINS AS WELL AS FORECASTS AND WARNINGS ISSUED
BY THE NEWFOUNDLAND WEATHER CENTRE IN THE COMING DAYS.
4. MARINE WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY
NO IMPACTS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. IN THE LONGER RANGE...
KATE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN AT HURRICANE STRENGTH AS IT ENTERS
SOUTHEASTERN CANADIAN WATERS MONDAY AND WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED.
MARINE INTERESTS SHOULD MONITOR THESE BULLETINS AS WELL AS FORECASTS
AND WARNINGS ISSUED BY THE NEWFOUNDLAND AND MARITIMES WEATHER
CENTRES IN THE COMING DAYS.
(...)
B. PROGNOSTIC.
LITTLE CHANGE IN THINKING ON FORECAST TRACK...TIMING WHEN IT
TURNS NORTH AND ACCELERATES WILL BE PROBLEMATIC UNTIL IT OCCURS.
LATEST GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING A TRACK CLOSER TO THE AVALON PENINSULA.
BASICALLY WE CONTINUE TO FOLLOW NHC CLOSELY.
ETA MODEL AT 18Z IS ALSO MOVING THE VORT MAX MUCH MORE SLOWLY THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. 18Z GFS IS VERY SIMILAR TO 12Z RUN. THIS GIVES SOME CONFIDENCE TO THE IDEA OF A SLOWER TRACK AND HINTS THAT OUR TRACK MAY STILL BE TOO FAST. THIS SLOWER TRACK WOULD BRING THE STORM INTO NEWFOUNDLAND WATERS IN THE EARLY HOURS OF TUESDAY MORNING AND
BRING IT CLOSE TO THE AVALON PENINSULA TUESDAY MORNING.
WE HAVE REMAINED A BIT MORE PESSIMISTIC AND HAVE KEPT THE
STORM A LITTLE STRONGER...AT HURRICANE STRENGTH... AS IT PASSES
NEWFOUNDLAND MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY.
THE LARGE AMPLITUDE TROUGH APPROACHING THE EAST COAST SEEMS CERTAIN TO KEEP THE HURRICANE AWAY FROM NOVA SCOTIA AND THE INCREASING FLOW UNDER WHICH THE STORM WILL MOVE SHOULD INITIATE TRANSITION AS IT APPROACHES NEWFOUNDLAND. HOWEVER THE COMBINATION OF STRONGER ATLANTIC CANADA TROPICAL CYCLONES IN RECENT YEARS...
AND A WARY PUBLIC FOLLOWING HURRICANE JUAN DICTATE THAT THIS IS THE MOST PRUDENT COURSE OF ACTION. IT SHOULD BE KEPT IN MIND THAT HURRICANE INTENSITY CHANGES ARE EXTREMELY DIFFICULT TO PREDICT... ESPECIALLY FOR STORMS THAT MAY BE UNDERGOING TRANSITION TO EXTRATROPICAL... AND WE WILL REMAIN IN CLOSE CONSULTATION WITH THE NHC TO REMAIN AS CONSISTENT AS POSSIBLE.
END MCILDOON/MARSHALL
(...)
CANADIAN HURRICANE INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA
AT 9.00 PM ADT FRIDAY
03 OCTOBER 2003.
THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 3.00 AM ADT
... KATE IS CONTINUING TO TRACK WEST....
(...)
3. PUBLIC WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY
NO IMPACTS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY. IN THE LONGER RANGE...
THE FORECAST TRACK OF KATE BRINGS THE STORM CENTRE CLOSE ENOUGH TO NEWFOUNDLAND ON MONDAY TO THREATEN THAT PROVINCE WITH PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN. AMOUNTS OF 50 TO 80 MM ARE LIKELY NEAR THE PATH OF THE
STORM. MORE DETAILS ON THE INLAND EFFECTS OF KATE WILL NOT BE
POSSIBLE UNTIL THE STORM BEGINS ITS EXPECTED RECURVATURE TOWARDS THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OVER THE WEEKEND. PUBLIC INTERESTS SHOULD MONITOR THESE BULLETINS AS WELL AS FORECASTS AND WARNINGS ISSUED
BY THE NEWFOUNDLAND WEATHER CENTRE IN THE COMING DAYS.
4. MARINE WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY
NO IMPACTS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. IN THE LONGER RANGE...
KATE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN AT HURRICANE STRENGTH AS IT ENTERS
SOUTHEASTERN CANADIAN WATERS MONDAY AND WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED.
MARINE INTERESTS SHOULD MONITOR THESE BULLETINS AS WELL AS FORECASTS
AND WARNINGS ISSUED BY THE NEWFOUNDLAND AND MARITIMES WEATHER
CENTRES IN THE COMING DAYS.
(...)
B. PROGNOSTIC.
LITTLE CHANGE IN THINKING ON FORECAST TRACK...TIMING WHEN IT
TURNS NORTH AND ACCELERATES WILL BE PROBLEMATIC UNTIL IT OCCURS.
LATEST GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING A TRACK CLOSER TO THE AVALON PENINSULA.
BASICALLY WE CONTINUE TO FOLLOW NHC CLOSELY.
ETA MODEL AT 18Z IS ALSO MOVING THE VORT MAX MUCH MORE SLOWLY THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. 18Z GFS IS VERY SIMILAR TO 12Z RUN. THIS GIVES SOME CONFIDENCE TO THE IDEA OF A SLOWER TRACK AND HINTS THAT OUR TRACK MAY STILL BE TOO FAST. THIS SLOWER TRACK WOULD BRING THE STORM INTO NEWFOUNDLAND WATERS IN THE EARLY HOURS OF TUESDAY MORNING AND
BRING IT CLOSE TO THE AVALON PENINSULA TUESDAY MORNING.
WE HAVE REMAINED A BIT MORE PESSIMISTIC AND HAVE KEPT THE
STORM A LITTLE STRONGER...AT HURRICANE STRENGTH... AS IT PASSES
NEWFOUNDLAND MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY.
THE LARGE AMPLITUDE TROUGH APPROACHING THE EAST COAST SEEMS CERTAIN TO KEEP THE HURRICANE AWAY FROM NOVA SCOTIA AND THE INCREASING FLOW UNDER WHICH THE STORM WILL MOVE SHOULD INITIATE TRANSITION AS IT APPROACHES NEWFOUNDLAND. HOWEVER THE COMBINATION OF STRONGER ATLANTIC CANADA TROPICAL CYCLONES IN RECENT YEARS...
AND A WARY PUBLIC FOLLOWING HURRICANE JUAN DICTATE THAT THIS IS THE MOST PRUDENT COURSE OF ACTION. IT SHOULD BE KEPT IN MIND THAT HURRICANE INTENSITY CHANGES ARE EXTREMELY DIFFICULT TO PREDICT... ESPECIALLY FOR STORMS THAT MAY BE UNDERGOING TRANSITION TO EXTRATROPICAL... AND WE WILL REMAIN IN CLOSE CONSULTATION WITH THE NHC TO REMAIN AS CONSISTENT AS POSSIBLE.
END MCILDOON/MARSHALL
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montrealboy
- Tropical Storm
- Posts: 172
- Joined: Mon Sep 15, 2003 6:39 pm
- Location: Montreal, Quebec, Canada
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montrealboy
- Tropical Storm
- Posts: 172
- Joined: Mon Sep 15, 2003 6:39 pm
- Location: Montreal, Quebec, Canada
http://www.atl.ec.gc.ca/weather/hurrica ... letin.html
(...)
CANADIAN HURRICANE INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE CANADIAN
HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 9.00 AM ADT SATURDAY
04 OCTOBER 2003.
THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 3.00 PM ADT
... KATE IS FORECAST TO SLOW DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS....
(...)
3. PUBLIC WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY
NO IMPACTS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY. IN THE LONGER RANGE...THE
FORECAST TRACK OF KATE BRINGS THE STORM CENTRE CLOSE ENOUGH TO
NEWFOUNDLAND ON MONDAY TO THREATEN THAT PROVINCE WITH PERIODS OF
HEAVY RAIN. AMOUNTS OF 50 TO 80 MM ARE LIKELY NEAR THE PATH OF
THE STORM. MORE DETAILS ON THE INLAND EFFECTS OF KATE WILL NOT BE
POSSIBLE UNTIL THE STORM BEGINS ITS EXPECTED RECURVATURE TOWARDS
THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OVER THE WEEKEND. PUBLIC INTERESTS SHOULD
MONITOR THESE BULLETINS AS WELL AS FORECASTS AND WARNINGS ISSUED
BY THE NEWFOUNDLAND WEATHER CENTRE IN THE COMING DAYS.
4. MARINE WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY
NO IMPACTS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. IN THE LONGER RANGE...
KATE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN AT HURRICANE STRENGTH AS IT ENTERS
SOUTHEASTERN CANADIAN WATERS MONDAY HENCE WARNINGS WOULD BE
REQUIRED. MARINE INTERESTS SHOULD MONITOR THESE BULLETINS AS
WELL AS FORECASTS AND WARNINGS ISSUED BY THE NEWFOUNDLAND AND
MARITIMES WEATHER CENTRES IN THE COMING DAYS.
(...)
B. PROGNOSTIC
LITTLE CHANGE IN THINKING ON FORECAST TRACK...TIMING WHEN IT
TURNS NORTH AND ACCELERATES WILL BE PROBLEMATIC UNTIL IT OCCURS.
SATELLITE LOOPS AFTER THE ECLIPSE HINT AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
TURN TO THE NORTH. BASICALLY WE CONTINUE TO FOLLOW NHC CLOSELY.
ETA MODEL AT 00Z IS MOVING THE VORT MAX MORE EASTWARD THAN
PREVIOUS RUNS. 00Z GFS IS VERY SIMILAR TO 12Z RUN. ETA WANTS TO
STEER KATE FURTHER EAST THAN GFS AND IS FASTER THAN GFS.
THE 00Z GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING A TRACK NUDGING SLIGHTLY FURTHER
EASTWARD FROM THE AVALON PENINSULA. THIS GIVES LESS CONFIDENCE
TO THE IDEA OF THE TRACK PROXIMITY TO THE AVALON PENINSULA AND
HINTS THAT OUR TRACK MAY BE TOO FAR WEST. REGARDLESS... THIS
TRACK WOULD BRING THE STORM INTO NEWFOUNDLAND WATERS POSSIBLY
AS SOON AS LATE MONDAY EVENING AND BRING IT CLOSE TO THE AVALON
PENINSULA ON TUESDAY MORNING.
WE CONTINUE TO REMAIN A BIT MORE PESSIMISTIC AND HAVE KEPT THE
STORM A LITTLE STRONGER AND FURTHER WEST...AT HURRICANE
STRENGTH...AS IT PASSES NEWFOUNDLAND MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY.
THE LARGE AMPLITUDE TROUGH APPROACHING THE EAST COAST SEEMS
CERTAIN TO KEEP THE HURRICANE AWAY FROM NOVA SCOTIA AND THE
INCREASING FLOW UNDER WHICH THE STORM WILL MOVE SHOULD INITIATE
TRANSITION AS IT APPROACHES NEWFOUNDLAND. HOWEVER THE COMBINATION
OF STRONGER ATLANTIC CANADA TROPICAL CYCLONES IN RECENT YEARS...
AND A WARY PUBLIC FOLLOWING HURRICANE JUAN DICTATE THAT THE MOST
PRUDENT COURSE OF ACTION IS TO ERR ON THE SIDE OF CAUTION.
IT SHOULD BE KEPT IN MIND THAT HURRICANE INTENSITY CHANGES
ARE EXTREMELY DIFFICULT TO PREDICT... ESPECIALLY FOR STORMS
THAT MAY BE UNDERGOING TRANSITION TO EXTRATROPICAL... AND WE
WILL REMAIN IN CLOSE CONSULTATION WITH THE NHC TO REMAIN AS
CONSISTENT AS POSSIBLE.
END MARSHALL/CAMPBELL
(...)
CANADIAN HURRICANE INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE CANADIAN
HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 9.00 AM ADT SATURDAY
04 OCTOBER 2003.
THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 3.00 PM ADT
... KATE IS FORECAST TO SLOW DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS....
(...)
3. PUBLIC WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY
NO IMPACTS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY. IN THE LONGER RANGE...THE
FORECAST TRACK OF KATE BRINGS THE STORM CENTRE CLOSE ENOUGH TO
NEWFOUNDLAND ON MONDAY TO THREATEN THAT PROVINCE WITH PERIODS OF
HEAVY RAIN. AMOUNTS OF 50 TO 80 MM ARE LIKELY NEAR THE PATH OF
THE STORM. MORE DETAILS ON THE INLAND EFFECTS OF KATE WILL NOT BE
POSSIBLE UNTIL THE STORM BEGINS ITS EXPECTED RECURVATURE TOWARDS
THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OVER THE WEEKEND. PUBLIC INTERESTS SHOULD
MONITOR THESE BULLETINS AS WELL AS FORECASTS AND WARNINGS ISSUED
BY THE NEWFOUNDLAND WEATHER CENTRE IN THE COMING DAYS.
4. MARINE WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY
NO IMPACTS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. IN THE LONGER RANGE...
KATE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN AT HURRICANE STRENGTH AS IT ENTERS
SOUTHEASTERN CANADIAN WATERS MONDAY HENCE WARNINGS WOULD BE
REQUIRED. MARINE INTERESTS SHOULD MONITOR THESE BULLETINS AS
WELL AS FORECASTS AND WARNINGS ISSUED BY THE NEWFOUNDLAND AND
MARITIMES WEATHER CENTRES IN THE COMING DAYS.
(...)
B. PROGNOSTIC
LITTLE CHANGE IN THINKING ON FORECAST TRACK...TIMING WHEN IT
TURNS NORTH AND ACCELERATES WILL BE PROBLEMATIC UNTIL IT OCCURS.
SATELLITE LOOPS AFTER THE ECLIPSE HINT AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
TURN TO THE NORTH. BASICALLY WE CONTINUE TO FOLLOW NHC CLOSELY.
ETA MODEL AT 00Z IS MOVING THE VORT MAX MORE EASTWARD THAN
PREVIOUS RUNS. 00Z GFS IS VERY SIMILAR TO 12Z RUN. ETA WANTS TO
STEER KATE FURTHER EAST THAN GFS AND IS FASTER THAN GFS.
THE 00Z GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING A TRACK NUDGING SLIGHTLY FURTHER
EASTWARD FROM THE AVALON PENINSULA. THIS GIVES LESS CONFIDENCE
TO THE IDEA OF THE TRACK PROXIMITY TO THE AVALON PENINSULA AND
HINTS THAT OUR TRACK MAY BE TOO FAR WEST. REGARDLESS... THIS
TRACK WOULD BRING THE STORM INTO NEWFOUNDLAND WATERS POSSIBLY
AS SOON AS LATE MONDAY EVENING AND BRING IT CLOSE TO THE AVALON
PENINSULA ON TUESDAY MORNING.
WE CONTINUE TO REMAIN A BIT MORE PESSIMISTIC AND HAVE KEPT THE
STORM A LITTLE STRONGER AND FURTHER WEST...AT HURRICANE
STRENGTH...AS IT PASSES NEWFOUNDLAND MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY.
THE LARGE AMPLITUDE TROUGH APPROACHING THE EAST COAST SEEMS
CERTAIN TO KEEP THE HURRICANE AWAY FROM NOVA SCOTIA AND THE
INCREASING FLOW UNDER WHICH THE STORM WILL MOVE SHOULD INITIATE
TRANSITION AS IT APPROACHES NEWFOUNDLAND. HOWEVER THE COMBINATION
OF STRONGER ATLANTIC CANADA TROPICAL CYCLONES IN RECENT YEARS...
AND A WARY PUBLIC FOLLOWING HURRICANE JUAN DICTATE THAT THE MOST
PRUDENT COURSE OF ACTION IS TO ERR ON THE SIDE OF CAUTION.
IT SHOULD BE KEPT IN MIND THAT HURRICANE INTENSITY CHANGES
ARE EXTREMELY DIFFICULT TO PREDICT... ESPECIALLY FOR STORMS
THAT MAY BE UNDERGOING TRANSITION TO EXTRATROPICAL... AND WE
WILL REMAIN IN CLOSE CONSULTATION WITH THE NHC TO REMAIN AS
CONSISTENT AS POSSIBLE.
END MARSHALL/CAMPBELL
Last edited by montrealboy on Sat Oct 04, 2003 8:06 am, edited 1 time in total.
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montrealboy
- Tropical Storm
- Posts: 172
- Joined: Mon Sep 15, 2003 6:39 pm
- Location: Montreal, Quebec, Canada
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphic ... 2058.shtml?
The TPC has Kate on the Avalon Peninsula on Tuesday morning.
The TPC has Kate on the Avalon Peninsula on Tuesday morning.
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montrealboy
- Tropical Storm
- Posts: 172
- Joined: Mon Sep 15, 2003 6:39 pm
- Location: Montreal, Quebec, Canada
Canadian National Hurricane Center Track
...
Last edited by montrealboy on Sat Oct 04, 2003 7:21 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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montrealboy
- Tropical Storm
- Posts: 172
- Joined: Mon Sep 15, 2003 6:39 pm
- Location: Montreal, Quebec, Canada
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montrealboy
- Tropical Storm
- Posts: 172
- Joined: Mon Sep 15, 2003 6:39 pm
- Location: Montreal, Quebec, Canada
8pm update track on Hurricane Kate
Here is the 8pm update track on Hurricane Kate from the Canadian Hurricane Center:
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montrealboy
- Tropical Storm
- Posts: 172
- Joined: Mon Sep 15, 2003 6:39 pm
- Location: Montreal, Quebec, Canada
CANADIAN HURRICANE INFORMATION 9 PM ADT STATEMENT
CANADIAN HURRICANE INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE CANADIAN
HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 9.00 PM ADT SATURDAY
04 OCTOBER 2003.
THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 3.00 AM ADT
... KATE IS LIKELY TO INCREASE ITS SPEED DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS....
(...)
3. PUBLIC WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY
NO IMPACTS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY. IN THE LONGER RANGE...THE
FORECAST TRACK OF KATE BRINGS THE STORM CENTRE JUST OFF THE
AVALON PENINSULA THEREFORE RAIN IS THE BIGGEST CONCERN. AMOUNTS
BETWEEN 50 AND 80 MM ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE AVALON PENINSULA ON
MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING. PUBLIC INTERESTS SHOULD MONITOR
THESE BULLETINS AS WELL AS FORECASTS AND WARNINGS ISSUED BY THE
NEWFOUNDLAND WEATHER CENTRE IN THE COMING DAYS.
4. MARINE WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY
NO IMPACTS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY. IN THE LONGER RANGE... KATE IS
FORECAST TO REMAIN AT HURRICANE STRENGTH AS IT ENTERS THE GRAND
BANKS OF NEWFOUNDLAND ON MONDAY EVENING HENCE WARNINGS WOULD BE
REQUIRED. MARINE INTERESTS SHOULD MONITOR THESE BULLETINS AS WELL AS
FORECASTS AND WARNINGS ISSUED BY THE NEWFOUNDLAND AND MARITIMES
WEATHER CENTRES IN THE COMING DAYS.
(...)
B. PROGNOSTIC
LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
KATE IS STILL IN ZONE OF LITTLE SHEAR ACCORDING TO CIMMS UPPER
LEVEL WIND SHEAR ANALYSIS PLUS SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO
SHOW SOME OUTFLOW ESPECIALLY IN NORTHEAST QUADRANT. WEAK COLD
FRONT AS SEEN BY SATELLITE IMAGERY TO THE NORTHWEST OF KATE
SHOULD CAUSE KATE TO BEGIN ITS NORTHWARD CURVATURE TONIGHT.
FLORIDA STATE UNIVERSITY CYCLONE PHASE EVOLUTION CHARTS
SHOW EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BEGINNING SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE
ADVANCING UPPER TROUGH PROVIDES INCREASING SHEAR AND AS COLD
FRONT BECOMES INCORPORATED BY KATE SUNDAY EVENING.
UPPER WINDS OVER KATE CONTINUE TO INCREASE ON MONDAY BRINGING IT
OVER THE COLDER WATERS TO THE NORTH OF THE GULF STREAM MONDAY
AFTERNOON THUS WEAKENING KATE CONSIDERABLY TO A CAT 1 HURRICANE.
THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE CONTINUES TO FOLLOW THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTRE IN MIAMI TRACK FAIRLY CLOSELY IN THE SHORT TERM
WITH SOME DIVERGENCE BETWEEN THE FORECAST CENTRES OCCURRING AS
KATE RACES ACROSS THE NORTH ATLANTIC.
END CAMPBELL/SZETO
HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 9.00 PM ADT SATURDAY
04 OCTOBER 2003.
THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 3.00 AM ADT
... KATE IS LIKELY TO INCREASE ITS SPEED DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS....
(...)
3. PUBLIC WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY
NO IMPACTS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY. IN THE LONGER RANGE...THE
FORECAST TRACK OF KATE BRINGS THE STORM CENTRE JUST OFF THE
AVALON PENINSULA THEREFORE RAIN IS THE BIGGEST CONCERN. AMOUNTS
BETWEEN 50 AND 80 MM ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE AVALON PENINSULA ON
MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING. PUBLIC INTERESTS SHOULD MONITOR
THESE BULLETINS AS WELL AS FORECASTS AND WARNINGS ISSUED BY THE
NEWFOUNDLAND WEATHER CENTRE IN THE COMING DAYS.
4. MARINE WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY
NO IMPACTS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY. IN THE LONGER RANGE... KATE IS
FORECAST TO REMAIN AT HURRICANE STRENGTH AS IT ENTERS THE GRAND
BANKS OF NEWFOUNDLAND ON MONDAY EVENING HENCE WARNINGS WOULD BE
REQUIRED. MARINE INTERESTS SHOULD MONITOR THESE BULLETINS AS WELL AS
FORECASTS AND WARNINGS ISSUED BY THE NEWFOUNDLAND AND MARITIMES
WEATHER CENTRES IN THE COMING DAYS.
(...)
B. PROGNOSTIC
LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
KATE IS STILL IN ZONE OF LITTLE SHEAR ACCORDING TO CIMMS UPPER
LEVEL WIND SHEAR ANALYSIS PLUS SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO
SHOW SOME OUTFLOW ESPECIALLY IN NORTHEAST QUADRANT. WEAK COLD
FRONT AS SEEN BY SATELLITE IMAGERY TO THE NORTHWEST OF KATE
SHOULD CAUSE KATE TO BEGIN ITS NORTHWARD CURVATURE TONIGHT.
FLORIDA STATE UNIVERSITY CYCLONE PHASE EVOLUTION CHARTS
SHOW EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BEGINNING SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE
ADVANCING UPPER TROUGH PROVIDES INCREASING SHEAR AND AS COLD
FRONT BECOMES INCORPORATED BY KATE SUNDAY EVENING.
UPPER WINDS OVER KATE CONTINUE TO INCREASE ON MONDAY BRINGING IT
OVER THE COLDER WATERS TO THE NORTH OF THE GULF STREAM MONDAY
AFTERNOON THUS WEAKENING KATE CONSIDERABLY TO A CAT 1 HURRICANE.
THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE CONTINUES TO FOLLOW THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTRE IN MIAMI TRACK FAIRLY CLOSELY IN THE SHORT TERM
WITH SOME DIVERGENCE BETWEEN THE FORECAST CENTRES OCCURRING AS
KATE RACES ACROSS THE NORTH ATLANTIC.
END CAMPBELL/SZETO
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george_r_1961
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