Kate must be major by now...

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ncweatherwizard
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Kate must be major by now...

#1 Postby ncweatherwizard » Fri Oct 03, 2003 9:10 am

With that symmetric eye as perfect as it is, Kate has to be major by now it looks like Isabel's eye---just smaller. The only hint of any disorganization is a tiny disruption in the eyewall on the south side of the circulation and a few cirrus clouds in the center---which don't really indicate anything on that thought. I would guess that NHC will agree at 11AM..anyhow, I'm opening the 10:30 forecast with a major hurricane.
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#2 Postby JCT777 » Fri Oct 03, 2003 10:16 am

Kate will likely be declared a major very soon, IMO.
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#3 Postby Mr Bob » Fri Oct 03, 2003 10:27 am

It is interesting to see that Kate has a similar make-up as Isabel with such large eye....perhaps another annular hurricane...would have been interesting to see a busy Cape Verde season to see the development of other hurricanes although just having two of the same type may be enough aid in study of the conditions favorable to such development...
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#4 Postby wxman57 » Fri Oct 03, 2003 10:45 am

I agree, Kate looks like a strong Cat 3 or even a Cat 4. Just can't figure out the reluctance of the NHC to call it such, unless that would mess up their forecast verification. I think it's a BAD idea to have the same people making the forecasts as verifying the outcome. Intensity determinations/verifications should be independent of the forecast team.
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#5 Postby JetMaxx » Fri Oct 03, 2003 11:28 am

I agree ncweatherwizard....my personal estimate of Kate's intensity is currently 110-115 kts (125-130 mph)...based on both visible and Dvorak images.
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#6 Postby Stormsfury » Fri Oct 03, 2003 11:37 am

I agree that Kate is looking "major".

IMHO, just looking at satellite imagery alone, Kate is 105 kts.

Looking at the CHIPS (not to be confused with ships), one of the ensembles last night brought Kate to 130 kts...today, that same spike brings Kate to 138 kts...not likely IMHO and laughable, but CHIPS itself forecasts 120 kts in about 12-24 hours. Based on Kate's "look", it might actually be feasible.
Last edited by Stormsfury on Fri Oct 03, 2003 6:50 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#7 Postby PTrackerLA » Fri Oct 03, 2003 12:50 pm

She's definately looking like a major right now, I would say winds are 120-130mph.
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