New Vortex - Larry Moving SW Toward Mexico -not drifting

[wxman57]

Just as the 8am CDT advisory was issued, recon found the center quite a bit farther southwest of the 20.4/94.1 position. The center fix was near 20N/94.7W - about 30-40 miles SW-WSW of satellite estimates. This means that Larry is moving a good bit faster than estimated. Pressure is also up - 997 mb - and winds are down to an estimated 45 kts at the surface (probably lower). You can clearly see the center of Larry near about 19.9N/94.8W on visible satellite imagery as of 8am CDT. This puts the center on the WEST side of that little blob of convection near 20N/94.2W rather than the east side or beneath the convection as the NHC indicated on the recent public advisory.

What does this mean? It means that the ridge west of Larry is becoming dominant over the ridge near Cuba. Mid-level winds around the ridge to the west are from the north and northeast. This is helping to drive Larry southwest toward the Mexican coast. It means that the models were initialized with Larry in the wrong place this morning, so they may be a bit suspect. It also means that Larry will likely be moving inland into Mexico this weekend rather than early next week. Already, western parts of Larry's central circulation are moving ashore. Finally, with convection diminishing and the center being closer to land, it means a weaker storm at landfall. Hurricane strength is pretty unlikely now.

Finally, I think this is the final nail in the coffin for any possible NE movement toward Florida. Time to go watch JB's morning video to see if he's touting the LBAR now and still going with a hurricane landfall in Florida....

Nope, JB now says upper low over south-central Caribbean associated with that tropical wave is breaking down the ridge over Cuba. The ridge W-NW of Larry is now dominant and will drive Larry into Mexico.

I agree with his comments about Kate being at least a Cat 3 now, too.

[cycloneye]

Yes agree with all those observations and this will put an end to the speculations and sometimes wishing from some people that Larry would affect the US.

[Dean4Storms]

Looks to be correct and we will have to see how far inland Larry gets. Several models retain the low from Larry pretty close to the coast down there and the GFS sits Larry in the BOC for nearly 19 days. I would not be surprised if he was to move inland to see his remnant move back into the BOC at a later time. The Gulf Coast has the westerlies to thank for the protection from this one!

[wxman57]

Looks to be correct and we will have to see how far inland Larry gets. Several models retain the low from Larry pretty close to the coast down there and the GFS sits Larry in the BOC for nearly 19 days. I would not be surprised if he was to move inland to see his remnant move back into the BOC at a later time. The Gulf Coast has the westerlies to thank for the protection from this one!

Actually, the latest GFS (06Z) moves Larry into the Pacific late on Tuesday and develops it there. The 00Z run was the one with the never-ending Larry in the BOC.