KATE #30 - DISCUSSION

[AussieMark]

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WTNT41 KNHC 030215
TCDAT1
HURRICANE KATE DISCUSSION NUMBER 30
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT THU OCT 02 2003

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 255/10. ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT ABOUT KATE MOVING AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A RIDGE
ANCHORED IN THE NORTH ATLANTIC. AN APPROACHING TROUGH IS EXPECTED
TO ACCELERATE KATE NORTH TO NORTHEASTWARD BY DAY 4 AND 5. THE
OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND
AGREES WITH A CONSENSUS OF THE GUIDANCE...EXCEPT THAT IT IS A
LITTLE FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY BUT A LITTLE SLOWER THAN
THE GUIDANCE AFTER DAY 4. KATE MAY WELL BE EXTRATROPICAL BY DAY 5.

THERE ARE NO CHANGES TO THE INTENSITY OR INTENSITY FORECAST. DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN IN THE 75 TO 90 KNOT RANGE AS KATE
CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT A WELL-DEFINED EYE. THE SHIPS MODEL INDICATES
STRENGTHENING TO ABOUT 90 KNOTS IN 24 HOURS AND SO DOES THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST.

FORECASTER LAWRENCE

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 03/0300Z 29.5N 46.3W 80 KT
12HR VT 03/1200Z 29.4N 47.9W 85 KT
24HR VT 04/0000Z 29.8N 50.2W 90 KT
36HR VT 04/1200Z 30.1N 52.5W 90 KT
48HR VT 05/0000Z 31.0N 54.7W 90 KT
72HR VT 06/0000Z 34.8N 57.2W 85 KT
96HR VT 07/0000Z 43.0N 56.0W 75 KT
120HR VT 08/0000Z 51.0N 49.0W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL