Don't call me crazy with this Larry forecast...

[ncweatherwizard]

http://www.nencweather.com/tropicalweather/larry.html

First of all, I never forecast a reformation of the center of circulation like I have done here, which is a bit risky--and not typical to say the least, but if this thing is going to sustain this low pressure, something has got to happen. And the track forecast looks interesting too; could be around for several days.

[wxman57]

Can't connect to your web server, so I can't call you crazy.

[Stormsfury]

Seems like his and mine (probably have the same webserver) are both down... again.

SF

[ncweatherwizard]

Can't connect to your web server, so I can't call you crazy.

Thanks for telling me that--I didn't realize that beforehand; I can't get onto it either... I'll see if there's not something I can do to fix this. That's the second night in a row something has gone wrong.

In any case, audio is now up whenever the page loads.

[Stormsfury]

NC, it's quite frustrating (must have geocities as the server).. I just created two long ensemble loops (12z GFS and 00z CMC ensembles and just managed to get them uploaded).
The CMC loop works and but I can't get in to view the 12z GFS ensemble loop I created until the server comes up.

SF

[ncweatherwizard]

I don't like doing this: as soon as I post this, the website will probably come up.

Tropical Storm Larry Forecast 3<BR>
10:20PM EDT THURS OCT 2 2003<P>

...Larry begins drifting southward; nearly a hurricane...<P>

<I>...Based on 0145 UTC images...</I><P>

Although these forecasts are verified as reliable, refer to the <A HREF="http://www.nhc.noaa.gov">National Hurricane Center</A> for official
forecasts, watches, and warnings.<P>

Larry has started a jog in a very general southward motion; latest satellite images hint at a southeastward jog, but such movement may not necessarily be permanent, which is quite a problem to solve tonight. A LLC is finally becoming apparent on satellite; although 85Ghz indicates a center of circulation, but not very well deepened or layered. T-numbers at 2345 UTC were at 2.5/3.0, corresponding to 45kts now. I tend to agree close to this; however, Recon has reported 60kt winds and a pressure of 994 millibars--with 64kt flight level winds in the southwest quadrant. Therefore, Larry may almost qualify for one of most unbecoming hurricanes I have ever seen. Satellite shows that convection has pulsed down in the past couple of hours, so I will set initial intensity at 55kts, even though a glance at the satellite does not support this. In any case, with a history of a broad center of circulation that is attempting to tighten as so it appears, tropical storm force winds extend well away from the center.<P>

Intensity forecast is very slow now; I really am not compelled to forecast a hurricane, but since Larry is so close to hurricane status, I must do so. However, I call for very slow intensification over the next couple of days, assuming that the quickest intensification has occurred over the fresh warm waters of the southern Gulf of Mexico. I have some doubts about the ability of a storm to develop as it drifts south on the same note; so I will allow for a hurricane in 36 hours, then call for no more intensification. The forecast actually does not make a landfall this evening, so this is not a factor in the intensity forecast. Shear values from the west range around 15kts, so this should inhibit intensification initially, as will upwelling of waters as Larry drifts about. I will maintain a 65kt hurricane after 36 hours through 96 hours, since shear values should decrease after 36 hours, but waters become upwelled near the center and outward throughout the storm's expanse. I do decrease intensity to 60kts at 120 hours based on shear values toward the end of the forecast period, which will probably return to around 15kts, but also as a precaution to a possible landfall if the track is a bit off; but the intensity must agree with the track...<P>

Track forecast almost takes Larry nowhere relative to 120 hours. I maintain a crawl just east of due south for 36 hours, as Larry is pinned beneath a trough. At 36 hours, I turn to the southwest as the secondary weaker trough over the Ohio River valley moves out, then briefly to the north at 48 hours as a ridge begins to build in, then to the west through 120 hours, with a slight slow down toward the end of the forecast period as this ridge moves eastward. Of course, the entire forecast is slow and keeps Larry over water, making a loop in the Bay of Campeche. It is quite possible that we could see Larry stall out near 120 hours or shortly thereafter if this track or something similar holds--as long as the center stays over water, it will likely stall again, and the pattern would begin again until it made landfall. Of course, this is not the most confident forecast, and all interests along the Mexican coast from the southwestern Yucatan to between La Pesca and Tuxpan, roughly, should closely monitor the process of Larry; already areas along the BOC Mexican coast have experienced some tropical storm winds, and the pattern will persist as Larry slowly nears the coast.<P>

I am closely monitoring a possible major relocation of the center of circulation, which would greatly deviate the track of the storm eastward. I will base the center on 85Ghz which still commits to the original LLC, but I am looking at something which may be forming near 93 degrees longitude at the same latitude. With the low pressure in Larry, it is quite possible and likely that the LLC will redevelop and the track forecast reflects this somewhat.<P>

NOW 20.5N 93.9W 55KTS<BR>
12HR 20.0N 91.9W 55KTS...NEW CENTER OF CIRCULATION<BR>
24HR 19.5N 91.6W 60KTS<BR>
36HR 19.2N 91.9W 65KTS<BR>
48HR 19.5N 92.1W 65KTS<BR>
72HR 19.5N 92.7W 65KTS<BR>
96HR 19.5N 93.9W 65KTS<BR>
120HR 19.4N 94.7W 65KTS<P>

Powell<P>

[ncweatherwizard]

Website is back up if you want to listen to the audio, etc.