New GFS: Larry trapped in Bay of Campeche for SIXTEEN Days..

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Derecho
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New GFS: Larry trapped in Bay of Campeche for SIXTEEN Days..

#1 Postby Derecho » Thu Oct 02, 2003 6:00 pm

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_384s.gif


(Yes, that's Larry. It begins to cross to the EPAC, then comes back. In those 16 days it does about two-three loops.)

Shouldn't be taken literally for a 16 day forecast; the gist is very very little movement for the next 5-6 days (during that time the movement is S on the model.)

The main thing is that people need to mentally adjust to a stalled, wandering BOC storm; I remember joking with a friend earlier this year that I would have liked to have seen how tropical boards would have reacted to Roxanne in 1995 wandering the BOC for eleven days.

One thing that WILL happen is a lot of short jogs or movements in various directions....

Just warning people not to scream "VICTORY!" for whatever forecast you have just because the storm started moving that direction the previous 6 hours...

Relevant passage from the NHC report on Roxanne:

"The steering currents were weak when Roxanne was in the Bay of Campeche. Consequently, the hurricane meandered within an area of less than 250 n mi for almost a week. During that period, several shortwave troughs and ridges rapidly passed by to the north of Roxanne, forcing the tropical cyclone to swing either southeastward or northwestward. Feeder bands and waves of 15 to 20 feet were pounding the coastal section from the State of Campeche to Veracruz throughout that time. Eventually, Roxanne was forced to move southward into the area near Veracruz by an approaching strong cold front. The remnants of the tropical cyclone moved southwestward into Mexico."

Another key aspect is that it IS possible for strong fronts to drive a storm SOUTH.
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Rainband

#2 Postby Rainband » Thu Oct 02, 2003 6:03 pm

Thanks Derecho..good points :wink:
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#3 Postby Aquawind » Thu Oct 02, 2003 6:10 pm

Excellent Post!! 8-)
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#4 Postby AussieMark » Thu Oct 02, 2003 6:16 pm

Very informative
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