Western Carribean--next storm on the horizon??

[Vortex]

Greates concern for the U.S. may be how the nogaps is handling the area of disturbed weather S of Jamaica the last 2 runs. Nogaps has generally been exceptional on picking up systems particularialy in October prior to any development in the western carribean for the last 5 years or so. I like the idea this model presents with Larry making landfall over Mexico as this is very reasonable given the overall pattern and climatology. At the same time a developing area of disturbed weather S of Jamaica is beginning to warrant attention as ridging is developing over this system. The flow is diffluent and we will likely have more bursting tonight off the colombian coast which will only provide an additional influx of energy into this system. While, I'm not buying it yet of a significant cyclone South of cuba in 5-6 days I am growing more interested with each successive run.

[Rainband]

I will get concerned if we see a trend..too many times this season early runs materialized into squat!! But I hear you about Nogaps history on these late season systems...maybe the season will be active till the end. We shall see Thanks for your input

[bahamaswx]

Looks ominous.. for Cuba and Jamaica anyway

[Vortex]

while it doesnt have a closed low it does indicate organized convection. I've hyper-linked later in the period but the first 96 hours our similar to the Nogaos with regards to location and movement.



http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_114l.gif

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_126l.gif

[Vortex]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_144l.gif

[Vortex]

but continues to support organized convection as this system moves over the Keys and S. Florida.


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_150l.gif

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_162l.gif

[Vortex]

System moves right over S. Fl.


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_168l.gif

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_174l.gif

[dixiebreeze]

Thanks Vortex, very, very interesting.

[hial5]

After running Vortex's 174 hours hyperlink, good ol' Larry is still hanging around the BOC..Anyone knows what the longest lived BOC TC is?

[Vortex]

For those who haven't accessed the latest Nogaps here is the system at H-144. This is the second run it depics a significant cyclone over the western carribean.


https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/CGI/PUBLIC/w ... rp&tau=144

[ColdFront77]

I like the idea this model presents with Larry making landfall over Mexico as this is very reasonable given the overall pattern and climatology.

I am aware that tropical cyclones in the Bay of Campeche in years past have meandered in that region and made landfall along the Mexican coast... but climatologically, tropical systems tend to move northeastward in the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico in October and November.

[Guest]

I did see a tiny spin earlier today, but I do not see it any more. Perhaps just a flare up? Then again, so was the embryo of Mitch.