Good evening everyone. The latest at 5 PM indicates strengthening with both Tropical Storm Larry and Hurricane Kate while Tropical Storm Nora continues to hold it's own. It's 5 PM EDT, and time for the tropical update.
At 5 PM EDT, Tropical storm Larry has strengthened significantly with maximum sustained winds up to 60 mph with higher gusts and a minimum central pressure down to 995 mb as of the latest recon report. That's a drop of 8 millibars since the 11 AM EDT advisory this morning. All interests along the Gulf coast including the US gulf coast should monitor this system as it's not moving much at all. Slower moving tropical systems are much more difficult to forecast when it comes to forecast tracks.
At 5 PM EDT, the government of Mexico has issued a tropical storm warning and a hurricane watch for the coast of the Bay Of Campeche from Veracrus to Campeche. A tropical storm warning means that the tropical storm conditions are expected within 24 hours or less. Tropical storm force winds are already being felt just offshore from the Mexican coast and could move into the tropical storm warning area late tonight into Friday. A hurricane watch means that the hurricane conditions are possible within 36 hours.
At 5 PM EDT 4 PM CDT, the center of tropical storm Larry was located near latitude 20.4 north, longitude 93.6 west or about 185 miles east northeast of Veracruz, Mexico. Larry has been stationary, but has been drifting very slowly south erratically so and this motion is expected to continue over the next 24 hours.
Reports from the hurricane hunters indicate maximum sustained winds have increased to near 60 mph with higher gusts. Slow strengthening is forecast over the next 24 hours or so. Tropical storm force winds extend outward 145 miles from the center. Thus tropical storm force winds are expected to move into Mexico between Veracruz and Campeche later tonite into the day on Friday.
The latest minimum central pressure reported by the hurricane hunters is 995 mb or 29.38 inches. Above normal tides should gradually increase along the coast of the Bay Of Campeche tonight through Friday accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves. Heavy rains could also cause dangerous flash floods and life threatening mudslides.
An indirect effect continues in the south Texas coast also from Baffin Bay down to the mouth of Rio Grande River. A coastal flood warning and heavy surf advisory are in effect. A coastal flood warning means that coastal flooding is immient or is already occurring. Northeasterly winds of 20-25 knots with 8-9 foot seas will continue in the northwest gulf through tonight and may even extend into Friday morning. The next high tide is just after 1 am in south Texas near Padre Island. Coastal flooding of beaches along with large waves are expected in this region in addition to dangerous rip currents. Lots going on in the Gulf Of Mexico tonite.
Elsewhere in the tropics, we still have hurricane Kate, which has also strengthened this afternoon. At 5 PM EDT, the center of hurricane Kate was located about 1165 miles east southeast of Bermuda. Kate was moving west southwest at near 10 mph. A turn to the west is expected during the next 24 hours followed by a northwest, then northerly track after that as a trough picks up kate. New Founderland is threatened by Kate about 5-6 days out. Otherwise no other land areas are impacted.
Maximum sustained winds with Kate have increased to 90 mph with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours.
Hurricane force winds extend outward 30 miles while the tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 230 miles. Minimum central pressure is now 976 mb or 28.82 inches.
Meanwhile tropical storm Nora has maximum sustained winds of 45 mph with higher gusts and is located several hundred miles southwest of the Baja California coast. No land areas are expected to be impacted and Nora should weaken later in the forecast period as cooler waters lie up ahead.
Another update on Larry throughout the evening and a complete tropical update later tonite. Good evening.
Jim
5 PM UPDATE, KATE 90 mph LARRY 60 mph NORA 45 mph
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