JB afternoon update

[hurricaneman27]

THURSDAY AFTERNOON S(N)IDE COMMENT. I am getting the impression TPC just does not like Larry. reluctant to name, then talking about how disjointed and unorganized it is, recon flies in and pressures are down at 995 and winds are up to 55kts. And guess what.. Now strong winds are on eastern side.
Midday runs very interesting as they are showing a low developing northeast of the stalled position of this storm in 5 days. Sometimes, not always, that "stretched" look is the sign the system is going to come out, but one can not tell and until I get a good look at how the storm develops and interacts with the ridges trapping it, or perhaps releasing it, all options have their good and bad points. In fact, the GFS implication that this may be around a week from now is in there also. I am sticking with my idea.

By the way, clever the way I will avoid worrying about the status TPC assigns ( I have learned my lesson with all this, as if it is stronger, the verified wind will be adjusted down to fit their forecast closer) and went to pressure as the verifying category

[Steve H.]

BTW, What is the Previous idea he's sticking to?????

[hurricaneman27]

The storm in question, though, may not be small beans. Larry will meander around over the next couple of days and I believe by Saturday morning this will be a 90-mph hurricane. Wait a minute. I'd better talk pressures here because who knows what it will be labeled as. How about 985 or lower. It may even do better than that. The question then becomes, is this deja Opal, or Deja Roxanne? And, of course, I am on record as being on the side of Deja Opal. The similarities are striking as Opal sat and grew in the area that this storm is in, and until the European suddenly caught the rapid move to the northeast (and, may I add, three days before the U.S. models did), it was forecasted to go south by the models. In fact, even when it started coming out, it was a case of playing catchup. But, how could something like this happen here? Well, here is my worry.

The storm is currently embedded in a situation where a fast stream is going by to the north and creating a reverse eddy underneath and holding it down from coming northward. The ridges west and east of it are both of the same intensity, so neither can steer it. However, the big worry here is that the ridge over Mexico breaks down while the ridge east of Larry grows stronger over the next three days. If Larry intensifies, then the stream flow to the east out of the south becomes stronger than the stream flow to the west out of the north, and the net motion is north or northeast. The farther north and northeast it gets, the more it is likely to find a way to start getting pulled northward. If it gets north to 25, then it's committed to the northeast, and we have the landfall threat on Florida. The worry then becomes as the strong trof pulls out of the northeast Monday, does a piece come southeastward and catch the storm and take it up along the south Atlantic coast? All this hocus-pocus is one-step-at-a-time material, though, and one has to occur before the other has a chance. So the TPC idea (and, in fact, all ideas) is a reasonable consideration here. The models say that the storm stalls and heads southward in more of a Roxanne-ish solution. But the stronger it gets, the better the chance it comes out the other way.

A wild card here, though, is the upper low over the central Caribbean now as that could counter the ridge enough to hold it in place anyway. For now, though, even in the face of model consensus against me, I will hold with my current idea. Folks on the central and eastern Gulf coast have to pay attention. Of course the Mexican coast from Tampico to the Yucatan is already paying attention.

While we are talking tropics, Kate could become as strong as a Category 3 storm. Poor HPC. TPC took Kate away from their forecasting. In any case, a turn to the north should be made between 55 and 60, and this could clip Newfoundland early next week. It is a beautiful storm now, and an objective look would suggest it is already beyond the peak intensity of TPC.

By next week at this time, the western Caribbean will be the breeding ground for what may be one of our last named storms. The wave to track is near 50 west now, and given the overall pattern and the time of year, we may have to deal with that. In fact, I feel as strongly about that as I did about the Gulf lighting up this week.

Florida is getting a break from the rain over the next couple of days, but it won't last. The short waves going by to the north, even if they do not pull Larry up, will cause pieces of energy to come northeastward and the pattern will grow widespread wet again on the peninsula, if not this weekend then next week. Obviously I am painting a potentially ugly picture there. I caution the reader not to read into this more than what I am saying. And that is that there are wolves lurking in the forest, but it's too early to be certain if they want to huff and puff and blow anyone's little house down. Many times I have seen me be right to a point, for instance the Gulf development this week, then the endgame gets tougher than what looked like a bold call from so far away. Larry is a case in point.

[wrkh99]

Thanks for the JB update

[deguy50]

thanx!

[Steve H.]

thanx

[JCT777]

Thanks for sharing JB's thoughts.

[Stormcenter]

Hey JB may be wrong a lot of times but he sure makes his discussions arguing his points way more interesting than the NHC. Though he may be on to somwthing this time around.

[ColdFront77]

I mentioned last year "on the other board," that when there are two high pressure systems... the stronger one would have more influence on the movement of a tropical low.

I remember getting replies from people saying that they didn't understand what I was saying.

It is a known fact in meteorology, a stronger high has more of an affect on the direction of movement for a low than a weaker one does.