Dr Gray's october update sees an average end of season

[cycloneye]

http://hurricane.atmos.colostate.edu/fo ... 3/oct2003/

3 more named systems and 2 hurricanes is what he sees forming in october and november but this does include Larry that formed last night and this report was already made so really it will be 2-2-0 left according to him and no more majors this 2003 season.What is the opinions from all about what the doc says.

[JCT777]

It sounds pretty good. 1 or 2 more storms for the rest of the season is what I personally think, and no more major hurricanes.

[Vortex]

still like the idea of a storm forming between 10-12 and 10-20 over the western carribean. In fact the Gfs has been on again off again in this potential development. The pattern over the next 2 weeks would support such an occurence in combination with climatology.

[Josephine96]

I say 2 more storms.. maybe 3. There probably won't be any more majors.

We shall see..

[Steve H.]

I see one more major, and it will be from the western Caribbean.

[Lowpressure]

1 in the Western Carib, and 1 in the Northern Atlantic about where Kate is now.

[cycloneye]

Yeah vortex I haved seen honking from some models in reference to the western caribbean area for next week but let's wait for a system to be there in the first place and then we will see what will happen.

Steve I dont see any more majors during the rest of the season and in that I concur witb Dr Gray.

[JetMaxx]

It's difficult to say whether or not there will be another major hurricane in 2003.

The negative factor is the apparent early onset of winter-like conditions over the U.S....if the current weather pattern continues, it definitely lowers the risk of a potent hurricane striking Southern Florida or the Caribbean..

On the flipside, we have a past history of intense late season hurricanes since the recent upturn in activity began in 1995....severe hurricanes such as Opal & Roxanne in 95'; Lili in 96'; 1998's Mitch; Lenny in 99'; and more recently, intense hurricanes Michelle and Iris are reason enough to keep my eyes on the Western Caribbean...at least for a few more weeks.

For the record, the latest date a confirmed major hurricane has ever struck the U.S. was the 1921 Tampa Bay hurricane which struck on October 25th. In 1985, hurricane Kate made landfall in central Cuba in mid-November as a major hurricane, only missing the Florida Keys by about 100 miles (winds gusted to 69 mph at Key West, Florida).....and later struck the Florida panhandle near Port St Joe as a 100 mph cat-2.

[ColdFront77]

The way this year has been going, even with the plunge of cold air... I wouldn't be surprised to see two or three more tropical cyclones this year.

A cold snap in late September-early October doesn't necessarily mean a cold mid to late October into the first part of November to inhibit potential tropical development.

[cycloneye]

I think that Dr Gray will be wrong when he says that no more majors will form because Kate as I see her will briefly be a major cane.

[rainstorm]

but kate was a sept storm. i say 1 more tropical system and one subtropical system