Larry to threaten florida and kate to threaten East Coast!

[Guest]

According to the track I'm almost certain that larry will head towards florida then make its way up the east coast and as for kate I believe the track will bring it near N/C & Va. border. Remember this is just my opinion and I will not change what I predict.......Keep monitoring the gulf and atlantic anythings possible. Study the Historical maps and you will be amazed at the forecast tracks.....like I said its better to watch these storms then go by what the models predict. Errors can happen IMHO......

[Josephine96]

I agree with you about Larry but I dont know about Kate..

[lilbump3000]

If larry affect flordia, it will probably make landfall near the big ben area, are either the panhandle, thats what i think.

[Guest]

I was looking at the five day forecasted track and it seems that larry is moving away from mexico and looks to be headed towards some of the gulf states. But this is just my opinon. I believe florida will be threaten by larry by next week slowly moving up the east coast. As for kate nothings for sure as the northwest turn goes. The trough may not be strong enough to sweep kate away. She may continue on the west track. This means it needs to be monitored. I haven't heard meterologists saying no threat to land yet. So this raises questions! but anyway time will tell........

[Stormsfury]

I couldn't disagree more.

Kate looks to recurve just before Bermuda and pass just east of there, and head NNE towards Newfoundland and just missing them too...probably as an extratropical cyclone.

Larry looks to already show some signs of meandering a little SW and if anything will sit and spin for a day or so. Most likely, Larry will head west into MEX in about 3-4 days.

SF

[bahamaswx]

Let's be serious here. The chance of Kate reaching the EC is so incredibly remote it's not even worth mentioning. The high to her north is not never ending...

[ncweatherwizard]

Kate looks to recurve just before Bermuda and pass just east of there, and head NNE towards Newfoundland and just missing them too...probably as an extratropical cyclone.

Larry looks to already show some signs of meandering a little SW and if anything will sit and spin for a day or so. Most likely, Larry will head west into MEX in about 3-4 days.

SF

Almost couldn't agree more: I don't know what to say about Larry; it is going to move west somewhere.

[george_r_1961]

Too early to speculate on Larrys track yet. But I wouldnt worry about Kate hitting the mid atlantic. Unfortunately though its looking more and more likely she will threaten Newfoundland.

[Steve]

Hmmm. Way to early for me to say either way. Larry could hit FL or Mexico. Kate, IMHO is more likely to hit Newfoundland if the recent magnet trend of warmer SSTA's holds up. I'm not making a call on it yet because I've barely been watching Kate, but see for yourself:

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/products/OTIS/US058VMET-GIFwxg.OTIS.glbl_sstanomaly.gif

[ColdFront77]

The three and five day forecasts for Tropical Storm Larry as of 10:00 PM CDT indicates very little movement. There is a lot of uncertainty with a forecast like this.

[Lowpressure]

It is going to be in the mid to low 30s here tonight and not much moderation any time soon. Kate will not hit Carolina/Virginia border, way too much high pressure and no moisture here. She would suck in air in the 40-50s with similar dew points.

[Colin]

There is no way Kate will get close to NC & VA...where the heck did you get that from?

[Guest]

I may be wrong about kate & larry but this was just my opinion. All tropical storms or hurricanes need to be monitored. Nothing is definate! all I'm saying is we shouldn't scratch any of these storms off our list until they do make their turn away from land in mexico's case it may be hard to do but it still needs to monitored as well as kate until that NW turn is made. Thanks for your views on this.....

[george_r_1961]

Windy I couldnt agree with u more

[Guest]

Good Grief noone can have an opinion. I've seen tropical storms & hurricanes not make the turns their suppose too only to threaten land. If I'm not mistaken I believe floyd was of those hurricanes that was suppose to be lifted out to sea and never did it brought destruction in its wake. My dad when he was still alive he told me about a hurricane that meterologists claimed went out to sea that it was long gone, only within a few days this hurricane intensified and came back and pounded the eastcoast. I want to say Donna but I'm not sure. It must of been one of those storms back in the 60's I believe. So you see all tropical storms & hurricanes needs to be monitored until the turn away from land has happened until then were not out of the woods yet. Have a good one george.

[ColdFront77]

Windy, I agree with your as well. I have been saying the same thing in pretty much the same way.

[Mr Bob]

Good Grief noone can have an opinion. I've seen tropical storms & hurricanes not make the turns their suppose too only to threaten land. If I'm not mistaken I believe floyd was of those hurricanes that was suppose to be lifted out to sea and never did it brought destruction in its wake. My dad when he was still alive he told me about a hurricane that meterologists claimed went out to sea that it was long gone, only within a few days this hurricane intensified and came back and pounded the eastcoast. I want to say Donna but I'm not sure. It must of been one of those storms back in the 60's I believe. So you see all tropical storms & hurricanes needs to be monitored until the turn away from land has happened until then were not out of the woods yet. Have a good one george.

Opinions are great and everyone is allowed to have one as the saying goes...but facts are also important in backing up your opinion unless you are just claiming faith...then who can argue?

Fact....Floyd was never considered to be a "fish" storm. The issue was that Floyd turned a few degrees west of where the models had it. In the scheme of things, the 120 miles or so is not a big deal in hindsight, but at that time it caused a massive evacuation of the Florida coast. Floyd was stronger than Andrew by a millibar or two as it passed through the eastern most Bahamas and so it was of great concern.

Fact...Donna was 1960...this is 2003 and the difference is like electricity compared to a bonfire...an outhouse to a bidet...NHC has nailed Fabian, Isabel, Lili etc quite a few days before hand. Modelling has come a long long way.

Fact...all modelling says Larry will go into Mexico. The only way for it have a chance is for it to be stationary and sit for 6-8 days then hope the models are wrong about the upcoming pattern or provide a pathway northward. Now, there is some shear. There is proximity to land and there is upwelling of cooler waters to deal with. The only model as of 12z that had a "sit there" scenario was the GFS and we all know how well it handles things beyond 84 hours much less anything tropical.

So, it is with reasonable logic that we can discern that Larry is not a threat to Florida. I do like to add with all of my forecasts...I have been wrong before and I will be wrong again!!

[Stormsfury]

Fact....Floyd was never considered to be a "fish" storm. The issue was that Floyd turned a few degrees west of where the models had it. In the scheme of things, the 120 miles or so is not a big deal in hindsight, but at that time it caused a massive evacuation of the Florida coast. Floyd was stronger than Andrew by a millibar or two as it passed through the eastern most Bahamas and so it was of great concern.

You beat me to it, Mr. Bob.

The ECMWF correctly showed the recurve just before Florida (and this was 7 days out ... again, DT has more info than I on this) while the others plowed Floyd straight thru Florida. It also showed the sharp curve to the NNE into NC while the other models were playing catchup. Believe it or not, this was actually one that Accuweather got right. I clearly remember the local news station that's an Accuweather affiliate showing the sharper curve they expected Floyd to take into NC, while others were still generally on the consensus of a South Carolina landfall.

SF

[Guest]

You sounded very definative when you made your 1st post. larry was haeded up the east coast you said...

I may be wrong about kate & larry but this was just my opinion. All tropical storms or hurricanes need to be monitored. Nothing is definate! all I'm saying is we shouldn't scratch any of these storms off our list until they do make their turn away from land in mexico's case it may be hard to do but it still needs to monitored as well as kate until that NW turn is made. Thanks for your views on this.....

[Guest]

NO what you posted is a WISHCAST.... NOT an opinion. An opinion is Premised on some fact. Your 1st post in this thread was NOT based on anything.

It seems to me that its OK to posts a far out opinion... but if someone reacts to it.... that sems to be a problem.

Perhaps next time one could say " I think larry is headed for FL and the east coast BECAUSE"....

Good Grief noone can have an opinion. I've seen tropical storms & hurricanes not make the turns their suppose too only to threaten land. If I'm not mistaken I believe floyd was of those hurricanes that was suppose to be lifted out to sea and never did it brought destruction in its wake. My dad when he was still alive he told me about a hurricane that meterologists claimed went out to sea that it was long gone, only within a few days this hurricane intensified and came back and pounded the eastcoast. I want to say Donna but I'm not sure. It must of been one of those storms back in the 60's I believe. So you see all tropical storms & hurricanes needs to be monitored until the turn away from land has happened until then were not out of the woods yet. Have a good one george.