Kate, Larry, coastal flooding and TD14E, interesting huh??

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WXBUFFJIM
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Kate, Larry, coastal flooding and TD14E, interesting huh??

#1 Postby WXBUFFJIM » Wed Oct 01, 2003 10:04 pm

Good evening. It's 11 PM EDT and it's time for the tropical update. Busy times now with not 1, not 2, but 3 tropical systems in the Atlantic basin and east pac to talk about.

Hurricane Kate is no threat to any land areas as it remains over the east central Atlantic. At 11 PM EDT, the center of Hurricane Kate was located about 1295 miles east of Bermuda or at 30.7 degrees north latitude, 42.7 degrees west longitude. Kate is moving toward the west southwest at near 14 mph. A turn to the west is expected in the next day or so.

Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours and Kate could briefly reach category 2 status during the next day or two.

Hurricane force winds extend outward 30 miles from the center while tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 230 miles. Minimum central pressure is 987 mb or 29.15 inches. Kate is expected to turn towards the west in the next day or so. Then Kate is expected to turn northwesterly, then due north as a trough picks her up. Thus no threat to any land areas.

Meanwhile Tropical Storm Larry is stationary and all interests in the Gulf coastal region needs to monitor Larry very closely as the track of Larry is very uncertain at this time. Slower moving tropical systems tend to be very difficult to forecast.

At 11 PM EDT, Tropical storm Larry was located near latitude 21.0 north, longitude 93.5 west or about 300 miles east southeast of Tampico, Mexico.

Larry is stationary or not moving at this time and very little forward motion is expected during the next 24 hours.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected during the next 24 hours. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 85 miles from the center.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb or 29.62 inches.

The real question is what effects does Larry already have on the United States? It's high wave action in the Gulf Of Mexico. That combined with a persistent northeasterly wind flow blowing at 20-30 mph persistently has caused waves of 6-9 feet in the northwest Gulf. That combined with high tides has resulted in coastal flooding for southern Texas, Thus a coastal flood warning is in effect for the southern Texas coast through Thursday from Baffin Bay southward into the Rio Grande River in Texas. A coastal flood warning means that coastal flooding is immient or is already occuring. Persons wanting to swim or surf in the northwest Gulf are not advised to do so until the winds and waves subside. The wind and wave combo is not the perfect setup for real good surfing anyway.

Meanwhile tropical depression 14E is no threat to land areas in the eastern Pacific. The system looks to remain small in size and weak, which is unfortunate for surfers in southern California. They sure could use a strong offshore hurricane to crank up the surf down there in Santa Monica, Long Beach, and San Diego. Not anytime soon I'm afraid. Maximum sustained winds with TD14E is only 35 mph with higher gusts. Movement is westerly at 6 mph. Minimum central pressure is 1005 mb.

That's the tropical update for this time. More tomorrow. Good night.

Jim
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