Larry going to be a real forecasting nightmare

[John]

The deep convection is becoming better organized and it appears that the outflow is slowly improving. A ship towing a Barge to the North of Larry and Located underneath the deep convection reported that he had winds of approximately 45knots and a pressure of 1001MB, Ship data indicates that the Center may be a little farther North than originally anticipated. As with many systems in this Tropical genesis area forecasting Larry will become a real challenge with time. Here is my best guess tonight...I believe a retrogression of the mid Tropospheric Ridge over the South-central states with a weakness extending Northeastward from the Southwest Gulf to a developing trough over the Eastern United States complicates the track forecast and leaves open the possibility that Larry could remain over the Southwest Gulf for the next two days. After that we should see Larry Move on a slow North Northwest and than Northward track, thereafter the upper trough is forecast to approach the Northwestern Gulf of Mexico and Larry could turn toward the ENE and Accelerate, this greatly depends on just how far North Larry is when the trough approaches. More Later
John

[PTrackerLA]

It seems like there will be a very small window of opportunity to Larry to affect the northern gulf coast this weekend before the next front comes in on Sunday. Yet again if it would make it that far north it would probably be ripped to shreds so I don't really know what to think about Larry right now.

[lilbump3000]

Well as we know these systems have a mind of there own, and they do surprise you at times, so we will just have to wait and see what he do.

[feederband]

it looks like a wait and see :o

[Steve]

Hey John,

I like your moxy with that forecast. It's as plausible as anything else I've seen. I think the Canadian's 12z run today was probably somewhat on the mark. My biggest unknown are the fronts coming south through the Gulf Coast. How strong will tonight's be and how far south will it get? Then what about the final shot to end this amplification phase on Sunday? SOI negative effects - return to zonal flow - are due in around the 4th or 5th (flipped negative 9/19/03, 15 day approximate lag time). So what I think would happen if it hung out in the BOC would be an eventual slow movement NEish after Sunday. But if Larry is already pulling north by Friday or Saturday, how does it interact with that last shot coming down? It's definitely going to be interesting considering the location and the obvious players lining up on the field.

I like your call.

Steve

[wrkh99]

This storm could be around for a long time

[John]

Well your question is a good one, just don't know if I have the right answer.

you asked

"if Larry is already pulling north by Friday or Saturday, how does it interact with that last shot coming down"

My best Guess is that depending on Just how far North and East Larry is at that time would depend on where he would make land fall, Since I strongly believe If Larry was moving NE before the trough approaches, he would turn NNE and really Boot inland somewhere along the LA coast Eastward as a rather strong Tropical system. Again this is not an easy forecast to make but I would rather lean toward the eastern half of the Gulf because I feel with each new upcoming run were going to find out that this approaching trough is going to be stronger and dig further South, IMO I do not buy into a track toward the West into Mexico tonight at all.
John

[Steve]

It was rhetorical and remains to be seen but I can't say I disagree with where you're going. I'm just not sure where Larry makes the connection with a northerly component. There's a front building in south Canada and some enegery sliding E-ESE out of the 4 corners region. We wait, and we'll see.

Good post btw.

Steve