18Z tropical suite UNANIMOUSLY bring sytem back east

[rockyman]

Click here and scroll to the bottom:

http://twister.sbs.ohio-state.edu/text/ ... s/03100119

No longer does BAMM bury the system in Mexico.

[cycloneye]

They start at 40 kts this run the same as last nights 00z run but last night they didn't upgrade it because it was attached to the front.But now let's see what they decide to do if they upgrade or not.

[Josephine96]

Hmm.. so the "slingshot effect" is forecast by the models huh..

Hmm.. "Larry" anyone..?

[PCBeach]

Also notice the name is not Tropical Depression Ivest but Tropical Storm Invest.

[Josephine96]

I noticed that PC Beach. sounds like they will skip right over "17"

[Lindaloo]

I thought the damn thing was going to Mexico?!! What happened?

[wxman57]

Yes, the BAMM does eventually move it east after it first moves it inland into Mexico and weakens it to a TD. But there's quite a difference in the 120hr position beween BAMM (83W) and BAMD (68W). Taking a look at the new GFDL, NOGAPS, GFS, and UKMET - all 4 drive it into Mexico and dissipate it. I believe that the Canadian model may be the only non-tropical model not driving it into Mexico, but the 12Z run only goes out 72 hrs.

There's no question it has 35kt winds and has had TS-force winds for over 24 hours. Personally, I'd like to see the NHC name it and put out a 5-day track. I wonder where they would take it? My guess would be Mexico but moving very slowly at day 5.

[zoeyann]

So wxman correct me if I am wrong, but it does not have a name or status because it does not completely have tropical characteristics, but it could still be dangerous? If it is not completely tropical then will it react like a tropical system as far as steering currents are concerned.?

[Lindaloo]

Thanks for the info wxman!!

[rockyman]

Looking again at the 18z...it looks like the BAMM does not bring the storm ashore over Mexico, but instead recurves it and shoots it back almost due east.

[wxman57]

So wxman correct me if I am wrong, but it does not have a name or status because it does not completely have tropical characteristics, but it could still be dangerous? If it is not completely tropical then will it react like a tropical system as far as steering currents are concerned.?

Correct. It's a TS-force storm but not in name. It's a hybrid low with some tropical characteristics but mostly not tropical. And, yes, it is most definitely dangerous, though such hybrid systems may not have the potential to explosively deepen as rapidly as a purely-tropical system. Your question about steering is a good one, but not an easy one. That's why the models are almost split down the middle. About 60% say west into Mexico, and the other 40% eventually move it ENE toward Florida. The models that drive it ENE toward Florida assume that it will be steered by upper-level wind flow. That may be true if it strengthens more than it is now, but I think it is currently being steered by lower to mid-level winds.

[Derecho]

The Irony of the "NHC Models" is that the NHC often basically ignores all of them, on rare occasssions mentioning the BAMD or BAMM depending on the state of a system, yet unfortunately the "tropical models" are the only ones that a lot of tropical enthusiasts ever look at.

What really matter are the GLOBAL models (GFS, NGP, UKMET, etc.) The Canadian, which is a global, but the most primitive one, no longer sends a strong storm NE to Florida at 12Z; it has a weak storm stuck in the W GOM, and develops another weak vort center to the east. All the rest of the globals drive 90L into Mexico or really show no development.

Of the four, the A98E is always useless (frankly, I don't see why NHC still runs it) and the LBAR is of limited value generally, and totally useless anywhere near the edge of the tropics (such as where 90L is now.)

And look at SHIPS and DSHIPS, which depict a disintegrating storm; actually, what your seeing with the BAMD and BAMM is less a forecast track, than an indication of how horribly 90L would get sheared apart should it wander too far north in the next 5 days.

[zoeyann]

Thanks wxman! I've been curious about this system all day. It's seems like a strange breed of cat to me, but that's October

[ColdFront77]

I thought the damn thing was going to Mexico?!! What happened?

There hasn't been clear consensus of this tropical disturbance moving westward into Mexico. With it showing more and more signs of separating from the front and the next front moving toward the Gulf of Mexico a guaranteed ultimate westward movement doesn't seem plausible.

[WeatherEmperor]

I hope this isnt the sling-shot that Josephine had been talking about cause Josephine and I do not need more rain in Florida.

[Josephine96]

Weather Emperor.. I don't need more rain in this area either.. We're all like ducks here lol

[WeatherEmperor]

I know tell me about it Josephine. I suppose this is what we are supposed to live with this time of year in the hurricane season in Florida. Ah just hope for the best they always tell me.

[Lindaloo]

There hasn't been clear consensus of this tropical disturbance moving westward into Mexico. With it showing more and more signs of separating from the front and the next front moving toward the Gulf of Mexico a guaranteed ultimate westward movement doesn't seem plausible.

Thanks for the info Tom.

[justlooking]

I just saw it has been named Larry and the official statement will be issued within the hour.

[Derek Ortt]

The models are not unanimous. The Ohio State output is only a small sample of the tropical model guidance that is available. In total, there are about 8-20 model runs that are issued for each system, depending upon its intensity.

Many of the models still have a west or southerly motion. Thus, the "squashed spider" appearance