NEW ORLEANS GET WHAT WINDS? ESTIMATES WANTED.SEE LAST POSTS

[john186292]

The post by prof. met,..houston 57.. "cold air advection thru oct eighth", is most welcome!

Historical record of storms near new orleans, shows that near-daily hits stop at oct FIVE! Long gaps begin then, when historically, during these precious gaps, no storms have come near our beloved city.

First gap is bet. five and nine, then a gap between ten and sixteen. Of course these days are not guaranteed to be storm free this year, but they do show a thinning down of the threat during this time of year!!

I calculate...in my amateur way, keep that in mind....that twelve percent of the total season storm threat is left after oct five, when the gaps begin. PLUS, the storms are less intense than midseason, so the wind threat is less that the twelve percent would suggest.

So, looking at the total damage threat from hi wind, during the season remaining after oct five, we would have to lower the threat from the above twelve percent to something like...say...nine percent.

ON THE OTHER HAND...keep in mind that this is statistics. Exceptions to summary statistics do occur. eg., a storm on oct nineteen, that was close to one hundred mh.(mh is mph, written as a new , efficient shorter version ). Average, tho, for these late storms is about...eyeball average.....fifty seven mh.

BACK TO OPTIMISM ARENA....favoring an even lower forcast for new orleans in the remanining season, is the word from Breck...."this jetstream pattern of front after front , is setting up early this year." If i understand him correctly, ...always keep in mind i am a rank amateur in this field......he may be saying that the protective jetstream and trofs have set up a fairly regular barrier.

Could the threat really now be near zero? I hope so.

///////
////// Please clarify this point, you experts out there. How semipermeable or nonporous is this jetstream barrier for the time remaining?

///////
////// Also, just what is the different nature of, and usual distance between, ------
ONE jetstream current----
TWO digging trof------
THREE front ?
TV mets tend to treat them as the same being. Yet on this board, i have learned that a trof, not a front, pulled Izzy north.
GRATEFUL FOR YOU EXPERTS, STAY WITH US!
John New Orleans

[john186292]

FLASH!!
Wed. pm...Breck just said "NOT A CHANCE THAT "LARRY' WILL COME UP TO NEW ORLEANS. THE FRONTS WILL PREVENT THAT. If it goes anywhere, it will go to mexico. Or maybe Florida." My paraphrase, don't hold him to this word for word. I recalled it the best i can, forgive any errors, pls.
John new orleans

[wrkh99]

It could brush N. O.

It's all about the timeing now

[john186292]

What wind will we get?
Will the dry frontal air and upper 70-100mph wind weaken it a lot?

[Stevex2]

John,

I think it depends on the relative strength of the storm. I also agree that timing is an issue. With a front coming through tonight and another one expected Sunday, it all depends on the time frame that it interacts with our local weather. Additionally, the lattitude it passes New Orleans from the south will be important as well. You may recall when Opal passed us to the South, winds at the lakefront were easily gusting above 50mph. The skies were blue, so it was kind of eerie. We'll be seeing lots of NE winds over the next few days anyway, so some gusts into the 40's are certainly within reason. Chances are we're going to get caught between some isobars within a pressure gradient. Most likely Larry will serve to bring us some nice and breezy conditions. That's what I see now anyway.

Steve

[wrkh99]

Could be more than 40mph if you look at the latest models

[Stevex2]

Thanks for the graphic 99. Tough to say. Think about how close Danny was (Danny that emptied Mobile Bay in the late 90's) or even Erika this year. We didn't see anything from them. But coming from the SW, we should get a pretty strong northerly flow. You know me, I'll take what I can get.

STeve

[lilbump3000]

I say this will pass right over the mouth of the mississippi river.