Will TD 17 be larry?

[Guest]

If their is a tropical cyclone developing in the gulf of mexico it may even become TS larry. May come towards the florida coast into the atlantic bringing havoc across the eastcoast states next week. This is just my opinion as I've seen storms do that many times. Anyway what's others view on this?

[bahamaswx]

I wouldn't really consider a weak TS as "havoc"... nor is it TD17 yet. Of course, in my opinion it's just a matter of time before it becomes Larry... don't know about a florida hit though. I think it may just stall out in the BOC.

[vbhoutex]

If it does anything it will go to Mexico or at least the portion that even has a tiny chance of becoming a tropical storm, if the energy splits off. The other, if there is a split, is going to stay hybrid/subtropical at best, IMO. Too much cold air coming S over the next t week.

[wrkh99]

It's not going into Mexico ! If it does then it want be there very long

[ColdFront77]

If their is a tropical cyclone developing in the gulf of mexico it may even become TS larry. May come towards the florida coast into the atlantic bringing havoc across the eastcoast states next week. This is just my opinion as I've seen storms do that many times. Anyway what's others view on this?

Windy, there has been some great discussions about this tropical disturbance in the Gulf of Mexico/Bay of Campeche.
(As bahamaswx mentioned... it is not Tropical Depression 17)

Feel free to read through the threads in this forum and respond to facts and opinions posted.

[vbhoutex]

It's not going into Mexico ! If it does then it want be there very long

Is that why the TWO mentions it drifting towards Mexico? In chat last night the consensus was that the tropical portion, if it even happens, will go into Mexico. As anyone here knows, especially when steering currents are weak, a system can drift for days. With more CAA coming in today and spilling S into the GOM it becomes less likely that anything tropical will form IMO. Even last night winds over the Gulf of Tehuctapec(SP?), S of the S Mexican coast were out of the N, a winter pattern, coming all the way down from the US behind the front.

James if you are so sure it is not going to Mexico tell us why!

[Rainband]

It's not going into Mexico ! If it does then it want be there very long

Is that why the TWO mentions it drifting towards Mexico? In chat last night the consensus was that the tropical portion, if it even happens, will go into Mexico. As anyone here knows, especially when steering currents are weak, a system can drift for days. With more CAA coming in today and spilling S into the GOM it becomes less likely that anything tropical will form IMO. Even last night winds over the Gulf of Tehuctapec(SP?), S of the S Mexican coast were out of the N, a winter pattern, coming all the way down from the US behind the front.

James if you are so sure it is not going to Mexico tell us why!

Novice question The front over florida and the GOM is being called "tricky" meaning it's movement..by some of the locals here..If it drifts north and blocks the other front from the GOM wouldn't that allow the "area in the BOC" to develop and move futher north?? Thanks

[GulfBreezer]

I will ALL depend on how long this "disturbance" decides to just linger. Alot could change......

[vbhoutex]

Johnathan, good question. And Sandi your reply is definitely part of the answer.

Basically the incoming front is VERY STRONG with snow currently falling in Michigan and Wisconsin and plenty of cold air behind it. This cold air will reach the GOM today and continue S to reinforce the ridging already in place that is holding this BOC system where it is. The current front will not block the other front from coming in if it drifts Nward. In fact it has been meandering across the entire GOM as it has slowly weakenedand I suspect this is the tricky your local OCM's are talking about, but the new one coming in today will reinforce it. What we are talking about here is like entities with the second one coming in and helping the first one by reinforcing/replacing it. Hope this is helpful. Anyone esle is welcome to back me up or tear me down if you have more knowledge and better facts.

[Rainband]

Johnathan, good question. And Sandi your reply is definitely part of the answer.

Basically the incoming front is VERY STRONG with snow currently falling in Michigan and Wisconsin and plenty of cold air behind it. This cold air will reach the GOM today and continue S to reinforce the ridging already in place that is holding this BOC system where it is. The current front will not block the other front from coming in if it drifts Nward. In fact it has been meandering across the entire GOM as it has slowly weakenedand I suspect this is the tricky your local OCM's are talking about, but the new one coming in today will reinforce it. What we are talking about here is like entities with the second one coming in and helping the first one by reinforcing/replacing it. Hope this is helpful. Anyone esle is welcome to back me up or tear me down if you have more knowledge and better facts.

That makes sense David thanks The candian still scares the heeby jeebies outta me

[cycloneye]

David you are on the money with that brief anaylisis.Rainband about the models until there is a true LLC iniciated by the models take that canadien thing with a grain of salt but I understand why you look at it this morning as very omminous.

[vbhoutex]

Johnathan, good question. And Sandi your reply is definitely part of the answer.

Basically the incoming front is VERY STRONG with snow currently falling in Michigan and Wisconsin and plenty of cold air behind it. This cold air will reach the GOM today and continue S to reinforce the ridging already in place that is holding this BOC system where it is. The current front will not block the other front from coming in if it drifts Nward. In fact it has been meandering across the entire GOM as it has slowly weakenedand I suspect this is the tricky your local OCM's are talking about, but the new one coming in today will reinforce it. What we are talking about here is like entities with the second one coming in and helping the first one by reinforcing/replacing it. Hope this is helpful. Anyone esle is welcome to back me up or tear me down if you have more knowledge and better facts.

That makes sense David thanks The candian still scares the heeby jeebies outta me

It would scare the heebie jeebies out of anyone with any sense Johanathan!!! Obviously, I could be proven wrong, but in chat last night several of us including SF and Derecho were discussing this and all agreed on the Mexico scenario if it doesn't just die out there. The death scenario doesn't look that likely ATM I must admit with all the convection, but lets watch and see.

[Rainband]

I am watching :o

[ColdFront77]

Some of the forecast model guidance is indicating movement toward Mexico and making landfall along the northern Mexico coast, while others show a turn to the NW, NNW, N, NNE, NE and even ENE... that sounds logical with a cold front moving into the south-central and southeastern United States.

I don't see why my analogy of a southerly flow moving tropical disturbances northward to the east of a basically north/south oriented surface front moving into the eastern United States versus a westerly flow moving tropical systems eastward to the south of a basically west/east oriented surface front.

Being in late September, early October now... lows don't generally move into northern Mexico. Storms earlier this year could have moved against climatology, which makes sense to me, too.