Guess where the center is?

#1 Postby **Stormcenter** » Tue Sep 30, 2003 3:51 pm

O.K. weather experts. Please click on the attached link and tell me where the center of the future TD#17 is forming. Here is a clue, It's not at 22.0W 95N.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

#2 Postby **alicia-w** » Tue Sep 30, 2003 4:00 pm

i'm no expert, but i'm gonna say 23 93

Steve H. · #3 Postby **Steve H.** » Tue Sep 30, 2003 4:04 pm

That's probably about right alicia :wink:

#4 Postby **HurricaneQueen** » Tue Sep 30, 2003 4:09 pm

No expert but I'm guessing there is no center as "blobs" don't have them as we know them! :lol:

#5 Postby **vbhoutex** » Tue Sep 30, 2003 4:11 pm

If that isn't a collapsing storm, and I don't think it is then that is just about right Alicia. I was thinking 22.5N, 92.5W. It sure has a long way to go to become something, if it does. I haven't checked the bouys yet. Are they supporting the fact that there could be a LLCC forming?

#6 Postby **wxman57** » Tue Sep 30, 2003 4:12 pm

21.2N / 92.3W -- that's where the recon located the center. But it's not tropical now, it's on the cold front.

#7 Postby **wxman57** » Tue Sep 30, 2003 4:14 pm

vbhoutex wrote:If that isn't a collapsing storm, and I don't think it is then that is just about right Alicia. I was thinking 22.5N, 92.5W. It sure has a long way to go to become something, if it does. I haven't checked the bouys yet. Are they supporting the fact that there could be a LLCC forming?

Oh, it's definitely, 100% a closed LLC. No doubt about that. Recon shows ENE wind at 25 kts at 21.4N/92.7W, south wind at 20kts near 21.3N/92W, NW wind 25 kts at 20.7N/92.5W, adn SW wind 15 kts near 20.5N/92W. It's attached to the cold front as a frontal low.

#8 Postby **Stormcenter** » Tue Sep 30, 2003 4:17 pm

Recon reported center at 21.2N / 92.3W, huh?
Oh well, I guess the visible satellite grid needs to be aligned then, LOL!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

#9 Postby **vbhoutex** » Tue Sep 30, 2003 4:20 pm

wxman57 wrote:
vbhoutex wrote:If that isn't a collapsing storm, and I don't think it is then that is just about right Alicia. I was thinking 22.5N, 92.5W. It sure has a long way to go to become something, if it does. I haven't checked the bouys yet. Are they supporting the fact that there could be a LLCC forming?

Oh, it's definitely, 100% a closed LLC. No doubt about that. Recon shows ENE wind at 25 kts at 21.4N/92.7W, south wind at 20kts near 21.3N/92W, NW wind 25 kts at 20.7N/92.5W, adn SW wind 15 kts near 20.5N/92W. It's attached to the cold front as a frontal low.

Thanks WxMan57 for the confirmation of the LLCC.

I used to receive all the recon messages and thought I had hit the right button when I reordered what I am to recieve. I do not recieve the recon any more. Where can I get it from. It always came as email previously.

jewli · #10 Postby **jewli** » Tue Sep 30, 2003 4:23 pm

If a system is no longer tropical and a part of the front can it still develop ??sorry if this is a dumb question clueless. :oops:

#11 Postby **Stormcenter** » Tue Sep 30, 2003 4:23 pm

O.K. this the OFFICIAL word from the big boys at the NHC. I guess they like working with GOM mess instead the Atlantic stuff.

Tropical Weather Outlook

Statement as of 5:30 PM EDT on September 30, 2003

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico...
Advisories are being issued on Tropical Storm Kate...located about
540 miles southwest of Lajes in the Azores Islands.
An Air Force reserve unit reconnaissance aircraft investigating the
area of low pressure in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico has
reported a poorly-defined surface circulation at or near the tail
end of a frontal zone. Thunderstorm activity with this system
remains disorganized at this time...and the aircraft has not found
any strong winds near the center of the low. Strong winds...up to
25-30 mph...are occurring north of the frontal zone as a result of
high pressure over the Gulf states. Thunderstorm activity extends
along the frontal zone from the low center across the central and
eastern Gulf of Mexico and across the Florida peninsula...and heavy
rains over Florida are primarily associated with the frontal zone.
While upper-level winds appear favorable for development...the
proximity of the frontal zone is likely to slow the development of
a tropical cyclone. Another reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled
to investigate the area tomorrow...if necessary.
Elsewhere...tropical storm formation is not expected through
Wednesday.
Forecaster Franklin/Beven

#12 Postby **wxman57** » Tue Sep 30, 2003 4:27 pm

Here you go, the latest analysis with the low exactly where recon found it. Note that the cold front has now moved east of Villahermosa - the station with NW winds at 15kts and 79/77 temp/dew point but it hasn't reached Ciudad del Carmen just up the coast to the east-northeast. Veracruz has 25kt NW wind and 84/70 temp/dew point. It's clearly a non-tropical low at this point. Question is, what will the NHC do? No convection at the center, attached to a cold front.....

Ah, just saw the post above mine. The NHC did good! Just a frontal low for now.

<img src="http://home.houston.rr.com/wx/larry9.gif">

#13 Postby **cycloneye** » Tue Sep 30, 2003 4:28 pm

No convection no TD that is simple.

#14 Postby **Stormcenter** » Tue Sep 30, 2003 4:33 pm

That's interesting because looking at visible satellite it's very obvious what ever IS spinning out there it's not where recon has it.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

#15 Postby **wxman57** » Tue Sep 30, 2003 4:38 pm

Stormcenter wrote:That's interesting because looking at visible satellite it's very obvious what ever IS spinning out there it's not where recon has it.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

The "problem" is, the clouds you're observing aren't at the surface. Cold-core lows tilt vertically toward the cold air aloft, which is north of the surface low. You're observing a circulation up probably at 5000-10000 feet up, which is displaced north of the surface circulation. That's why you need to be cautious with satellite position estimates, particularly at night.

Rainband · #16 Postby **Rainband** » Tue Sep 30, 2003 5:28 pm

Well I am happy whatever develops or doesn't.. won't come to Florida we need a break!!! :o

ColdFront77 · #17 Postby **ColdFront77** » Tue Sep 30, 2003 6:27 pm

cycloneye wrote:No convection no TD that is simple.

No convection?

Guess where the center is?

Guess where the center is?

Huh?

teach me please

From the big boys

That's interesting because....

Re: That's interesting because....

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