Tropical and marine update: noon Tuesday 9-30-03

[WXBUFFJIM]

Good afternoon everyone. A busy afternoon with a coastal flood warning continuing for the south Texacs ciast, flooding rains in south Florida, a disturbance in the Bay Of Campeche and the Gulf Of Mexico, and Kate, which is now a tropical storm in the eastern Atlantic. Kate is definitely too sick to be a hurricane right now.

At 11 AM EDT, the center of tropical storm Kate was located about 575 miles southwest of Lajos in the Azores Islands. Kate is moving toward the north at near 6 mph. Kate has slowed it's forward speed over the past 24 hours. This north motion is expected to continue with a turn to the west over the next 24 hours.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph with higher gusts. Kate is expected to hold it's own and thus little change in strength is expected over the next 24 hours. Satellite images look more like Kate is one of those severe mesoscale convective systems as opposed to the classic central dense overcast we usually see with hurricanes. This is due to strong southwestly shear, which is expected to relax some over the next day or two. Thus Kate is expected to slowly strengthen back to hurricane status within the next 2-3 days or so.

Minimum central pressure is 992 mb or 29.29 inches. Repeating the 11 am position, 32.0 north, 35.4 west, movement is toward the north at near 6 mph, maximum sustained winds 65 mph, minimum central pressure 992 mb.

Elsewhere in the tropics, all is quiet in the Caribbean and the western Atlantic. The attention shifts into the Bay Of Campeche and the Gulf Of Mexico. A few blobs of convection is noted. A recon plane is expected to investigate the huge blob in the southern Gulf Of Mexico and it could develop into a depression. This convection is lined up along a stalled out frontal boundary, which is still situaed over southern Florida. Naples received 6.7 inches of rain yesterday and Marco Island saw 7.5 inches yesterday. Very wet and that kind of rain combined with saturated ground will most certainly cause major flash flooding. More heavy rain is expected over south Florida for the next 24-48 hours. Not good news.

Finally problems continue over southern Texas with 8-9 foot seas and northeast winds of 20-30 knots. A ridge of high pressure extending down into Texas combined with the broad low pressure area over the southern Gulf and the Bay Of Campeche has caused a pressure gradient to setup in south Texas. A northeast fetch, which has been continuous has piled the water up along the coast and thus a coastal flood warning is in effect for the south Texas coast from Baffin Bay to the mouth of the Rio Grande River through Thursday. Police have reported coastal flooding already occurring in south Padre Island and more coastal flooding is expected through at least Thursday.

A coastal flood warning means that coastal flooding is immient or is already occuring or will occur within the next 12 hours. Preparation to protect life and property along the south Texas coast should have already been ruished to completion. Small craft are urged to stay in port given the rough seas.

In addition a heavy surf advisory is in effect for the south Texas coast. Another update on this coming up this evening.

Jim

[JCT777]

Thanks for the update, Jim. I really wasn't aware of the coastal flooding situation in south Texas. Hopefully that will abate soon.