Here's the latest screen shot, showing the disturbance has now completely merged with the frontal boundary in the southern Gulf. Of interest is the air with dew points in the 40s streaming southwestward off the north-central Gulf coast. Note that the dew point in Tampico is down to 64 now - that's pretty low for them. Of course, as the cool, dry air flows all the way down to the Bay of Campeche it is modifying considerably. Now there's a second surge of cold air (well, coolish air) slated to move offshore Wednesday night. So the cold air advection will be continuing for another 48-72 hours. Such conditions are not exactly conducive to TROPICAL development, but they will keep the west Gulf frontal low going.
So the recon will fly out there this afternoon and no doubt find the low on the cold front, but it's not really fuly tropical. The question is, what will they do? It can't develop too much while sucking in cool, dry air, except extratopically.
Once the CAA shuts down on Friday, any remaining low center out there certainly could "go tropical" and move N-NE, threatening just about anywehre. But if the upper-air progs are anywhere close to being right, then winds aloft across the northern Gulf for Fri-Wed will be from the west at 60-80 kts - not favorable for tropical development. So if anything moves up north it would likely be severely sheared.
<img src="http://home.houston.rr.com/wx/larry6.gif">
Hi-Res Gulf Visible / Surface Obs / Comments...
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WeatherEmperor
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cycloneye
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As always 57 thanks for bringing the best pics available for the members to see what is going on.
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Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
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Portastorm
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Yes 57, I want to echo a big THANK YOU!
I just love these screen shots you offer us with the accompanying analysis. You do a great job of educating folks like myself!
I just love these screen shots you offer us with the accompanying analysis. You do a great job of educating folks like myself!
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Any forecasts under my name are to be taken with a grain of salt. Get your best forecasts from the National Weather Service and National Hurricane Center.
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wxman57
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And an 18Z shot with a ship in the BOC behind the cold front:
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_120s.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_120s.gif
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