INVEST 90 DROPS FROM 1008 TO 1006 MB.......

[dixiebreeze]

TONIGHT AS IT EMERGES INTO THE GOM........

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_ho ... YLE=tables

[wxman57]

It's been in the GOM since yesterday, but it has now merged with the cold front. Convection has elongated along the front. There are now 3 separate pockets of tstms, one in the western BOC, one north of the Yucatan, and one just west of south Florida. The LLC is on the cold front NW of the Yucatan. Such frontal lows will not develop into tropical cyclones as long as cold air advection persists. Another round of CAA will begin Wednesday night - not good for TC development. If anything, the low may strengthen a bit as a cold-core or hybrid type frontal low over the next 2-3 days. But if it's going to become tropical, it won't happen until the CAA quits late Thursday and the frontal boundary dissipates. And all that is not going to happen in the next 24-48 hours. Even the NHC is saying about the same thing on their TWO. I saw Steve Lyons on TWC say the same on the tropical update last night.

This system may never amount to anything now, it could just fizzle out down there and move inland into Mexico. But we do have to keep a close watch on it as long as there's anything left of it down there.

[ColdFront77]

This frontal system in the Gulf of Mexico to the Florida peninsula is expected to dissipate this week.

Also, the upper level wind shear is decreasing over the southern portion of an area of shear there as been in the Gulf of Mexico.