TROPICAL CYCLONE 1S - ADVISORY

[AussieMark]

WTXS31 PGTW 292100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/290921ZSEP2003//
AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
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WARNING POSITION:
291800Z0 --- NEAR 4.5S9 64.2E2
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 01 KT
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 4.5S9 64.2E2
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FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z9 --- 4.7S1 64.3E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 01 KTS
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24 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z2 --- 4.9S3 64.3E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z7 --- 5.1S6 64.1E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 02 KTS
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EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z0 --- 5.3S8 63.7E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
---
REMARKS:
292100Z4 POSITION NEAR 4.5S9 64.2E2.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
505 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS BEEN NEAR
QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING
POSITION IS BASED ON 291806Z6 AMSU SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
THE LATEST QUIKSCAT PASS. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED
ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 25 AND 35
KNOTS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS CYCLING
CONVECTION ON THE WESTERN SIDE WHILE THE QUIKSCAT PASS
REVEALS A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) JUST EAST OF
THE CONVECTION. TC 01S IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR QUASI-
STATIONARY FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS DUE TO LACK OF STEERING
FLOW. TC 01S IS ALSO EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AT A SLOW RATE
DUE TO WEAK OUTFLOW ALOFT. MODERATE TO HIGH VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR AREAS ARE LOCATED TO THE SOUTH OF TC 01S.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 291800Z4 IS 08 FEET. THIS
WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN
290921Z3 SEP 03 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21
PGTW 290930). NEXT WARNINGS AT 300900Z2 AND 302100Z6.//