00z Tropical model suite=21.5n-90.0w 1006 mbs 305 7kts

[cycloneye]

http://twister.sbs.ohio-state.edu/text/ ... s/03093000

That position 21.5n-90.0w is already off the NW coast of the Yucatan.

[ColdFront77]

The position... 21.5°N 90.0°W is about 35 miles north of Merida, Mexico, north of the northwestern portion of the Yucatan Peninsula.

[wxman57]

Yep, that's right on the cold front which has reached the western Yucatan Peninsula. The tropical disturbance has merged with the front. Much of the moisture shot across Florida, but a lot of the energy remains. Not much cool air across the BOC, but it's the front alright.. There's another reinforcing shot of cold air that'll blast out across the Gulf on Wed/Thu, feeding into the frontal wave/low on the SW Gulf. Such frontal lows combined with tropical energy can become tropical storms once the front loses upper-level support and the cold air advection shuts down. That won't happen until after Thursday. So it looks like we'll be watching this system for a while. It's possible it may never do anything.