Weather hazards in Florida and Texas and update on Kate....

[WXBUFFJIM]

Good evening everyone. Several things to watch. Kate in the eastern Atlantic, a tropical disturbance in the western Caribbean near the east coast of the Yucatan Pennisula, a major fresh water flood event courtesy of heavy rainfall for west central Florida near the Naples area and yes a coastal flood warning for south Texas. All of the details are below!!

Kate remains a tropical storm at 5 PM EDT. However slow strengthening to hurricane strength is expected later tonight or on Tuesday. If Kate becomes a hurricane, it would be the sixth hurricane in the 2003 Atlantic hurricane season.

At 5 PM EDT, the center of tropical storm Kate was located about 725 miles southwest of Lajes in the Azores. The coordinates if you're plotting at home is latitude 29.8 degrees north, longitude 36.0 degrees west.

Kate is moving towards the northeast at near 18 mph. A general northeast motion with a slower forward speed is expected in the next day or so. Kate was moving at a forward speed of 20 mph earlier today. In the next few days though, Kate is expected to turn more towards the northwest as an upper low moves southwest just west of the tropical cyclone. The counter clockwise flow around that upper low will cause Kate to turn towards the northwest. In addition High pressure is situated near the Azores, blocking Kate from moving further northeastward. So the expectation is for Kate to slow down, then turn on a more northwesterly track overtime. However Kate is only expected to be a shipping/marine hazard. No land impact is anticipated at this time, which is very good news.

Maximum sustained winds with Kate are near 70 mph with higher gusts. Some slow strengthening is likely during the next 24 hours and Kate could become the sixth hurricane of the 2003 Atlantic hurricane season later tonight or on Tuesday.

Tropical storm force winds with Kate extend outward up to 230 miles from the center. Minimum central pressure is now 991 mb or 29.26 inches.

Meanwhile a broad tropical low pressure disturbance is situated over the Yucatan Pennisula this evening. Numerous showers and storms dominate with this feature as it heads in the general direction of the Bay Of Campeche. Complicating matters, a southerly tropical wind flow just east of this broad low pressure center is colliding with a stalled out frontal boundary over Florida. Tremendous rains have occurred today near Naples with radar estimates of 8-10 inches just today alone and more is falling on top of that. That combined with saturated ground means major flash flooding I'm afraid. Meanwhile it's another wet day for the goal coast in Miami where a 10 inch surplus has been noted for the year. South central Florida does not need anymore rain. But more heavy rain is in the forecast for the next several days I'm afraid.

As the tropical low moves towards the Bay Of Campeche, it will need to be monitored for posible tropical formation. But the damage is done in south central Florida.

The combination of this tropical low over the Yucatan and a strong high pressure ridge extending down into Texas is causing a pressure gradient and a persistent northeasterly fetch into south Texas. As a result, coastal flood warnings are in effect for the south Texas coast from Baffin Bay to the mouth of the Rio Grande River. A heavy surf advisory has also been issued for the same location and the warnings/advisories last into Thursday.

Northeast winds of 20-25 knots and seas of 8-9 feet have been observed in the coastal flood warning areas. In addition, tidal highs near 2.1 feet are expected through Thursday. This comibnation of high tide and significant offshore swell activity will produce coastal erosion similar to that of Hurricane Claudette before she made landfall on the south central Texas coast on July 15th.

A coastal flood warning means that coastal flooding is immient and is occurring or is expected to occur within the next 12 hours. People in the warning area from Baffin Bay to the US/MX border are ruged to take immediate action along the south Texas coast to protect life and property.

In addition be careful for dangerous rip currents along the southern Texas coast through Thursday. Rip currents are narrow but swift currents of water returning offshore from the beach. They can tire and drown even the strongest swimmers. It is strongly recommended that no one ventures into the surf zone until this event has subsided. If caught in a rip current though, swim parallel to the beach until you get out of the rip current, then swim towards shore. Don't swim towards shore while in the rip current itself as it could tire you out. A small craft advisory is also in effect for the southern Texas coast as well. A busy day today both tropically and marine wise as dangerous situations are occurring at this time. Another update will be done later this evening. Good evening.

Jim