High-Res Gulf Satellite & Surface Plot

[wxman57]

I just took a snapshot of the Gulf and the disturbance in the NW Caribbean with land, ship, & buoy data plotted. As you can see, no evidence at all of a circulation at the surface. Could be a small mid-level swirl over the NE Yucatan, but even that is less evident than over the past few days. Take a look at the 25-30 kt NE winds behind the front. That cooler, drier air is streaming into the SW Gulf at 30kts. Eventually, we may see a low develop along the front down there, and it could turn tropical with time. One thing seems likely - this thing isn't going anywhere fast.

http://home.houston.rr.com/wx/larry4.gif

[GulfBreezer]

Just what we need is more "wait and see"

[Steve H.]

I beg to differ. There is a surface circulation over the NW Yucatan that is drifting WNW. This was also discussed in the 2:05 TWD. I am beginning to wonder if there are two centers though, the mid-level center NE of the Yucatan that is moving north, and the aforementioned one. Ed Dunham at CFHC seemed to think the Mid-level will develop into TD #17 and head NE. I disagree there as well, but that's another forum, but shows that multiple centers exist. I'm about ready to go with the majority of the models and say that this low will head to the BOC and get squashed into Mexico. Nothing new on the Tropical horizon, so it will be back to quiet time for a bit. I see a major storm for October though. This time a real threat from the Caribbean. But the pattern will take at least a week to start aligning for it. Cheers!!

[wxman57]

Right, Steve, I was talking about a circulation center associated with the disturbance over the NW Caribbean. There is a circulation center just west of the Yucatan Peninsula but the low center is along the cold front now. This type of low formation is common during the winter when cold fronts hit the NW Gulf and the cooler air rushes down the west Gulf along the Mexican coast and swirls around in the BOC. Here's a current shot with a frontal analysis:

<img src="http://home.houston.rr.com/wx/larry5.gif">

[Steve H.]

What do you think we can expect from this 57? Any development?

[wxman57]

Well, with 20-30 kt NE winds streaming across the Gulf behind the front, bringing cooler (relatively), drier air into the low through at least Thursday, significant tropical development isn't likely. But if the low persists down there past Thursday (likely) and is still over water (possibly), then I'd say tropical development would be likely. I have little confidence in any particular track yet, though. Could go inland somewhere between south Mexico and south Florida.

[KatDaddy]

I keep seeing where TX is the least likely to be affected however I cannot get past the point of return flow by the end of next week. This scenario would pull the system NW. Perhaps I am missing something here.

[wxman57]

I keep seeing where TX is the least likely to be affected however I cannot get past the point of return flow by the end of next week. This scenario would pull the system NW. Perhaps I am missing something here.

You're right, KatDaddy, I can see that as a distinct possibility when return flow sets up and another trof digs down into the southern Rockies. We're not out of the woods here in Texas yet.

[ChaserUK]

wxman57, thanks for the analysis there - I am learning so much from you guys! Thanks. I get the impression there is a rather broad area of circulation there?

[opera ghost]

Hard to believe we could be in any danger with such lovely fall weather today *Laughs*

Goes to show more waiting and watching

[ChaserUK]

with the really early start this season it does seem rather drawn out doesn't it!

[ColdFront77]

The typical movement with a set-up like this... A low pressure "between a" warm front (in this and sometimes in other cases
a [quasi-]stationary front) and cold front usually causes the low to move north, north-northeast and/or northeast eventually.

The stationary front across south-central Florida is expected to move very slowly northward and than dissipate.