Flood Warnings likely needed for much of FL later today.

[John]

Just from some early morning appearances it looks to me like we have a surface feature just East of Cozumel, if that's the case than it's going to be hard to get a 50kT Tropical Storm out of this since it should get far enough North to become involved in the strong H50 flow, whatever is there is not moving WNW but rather NNW at a crawl. But Florida has other fish to fry today, all indications are setting up for a possible major classic flooding event from Central Florida Southward. Soundings continue to depict an exceptionally moist atmosphere, PWAT values are 2.25." And the latest Sounding past the 24H run showed increasing moisture in the 800-500 MB layer. short term.. the trough looks like it will run out of gas just south of the cape tonight, this should set up a classic training event for widespread heavy flooding rain, expecting a secondary feature to Develop off the East Coast along the boundary sometime tomorrow. Events like this have been known to cause some record breaking rainfall, in 1995 this type of set up caused 20" to fall on parts of the treasure Coast Southward, The reason I am focused on the East Coast is because of the possible secondary low, this could develop just on the coast along the boundary which would be very important. I been around a while and seen it. I would not be at all surprised to see a Line drawn for a Flood Warning From Central FL South today, most AFDs should reflect this as the afternoon shift takes over. As a note if you live in an area that is prone to Flooding you need to stay abreast of this situation and be ready to take action. More later
John

[HurricaneQueen]

John: Please see my previous post. In the past 1/2 hr., W. Central Collier is under a flood warning. Many street (main ones) are already under water from 3-5 inches of rain in the past couple of hours. I agree with you that we are probably the first of many such warnings. Gonna be a long couple of days but it could be so much worse.

[dixiebreeze]

Thanks for the update and analysis, John. I fear your forecast will pan out and we'll be saturated again. Perhaps not as much as farther south, but we still need to be alert here in WC Fla.