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Josephine96
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Rainband
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Josephine96
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wxman57
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Well, I'm back at work today where I can study this thing closely. I can tell from here, that there is absolutely NO evidence at all of an LLC. There is a very strong cold front that's now 160 miles north of the Yucatan Peninsula. Winds behind the front are 25-30 kts from the northeast, and there's a lot of cool, dry air moving southward. Certainly, no TD today.
The questio is, what wil it do? Some of the moisture already appears to be getting entrained by the front, moving NE toward Florida. But I think some of the energy, maybe the bulk of it, will drift slowly west to the northern BOC/SW Gulf. Once there, it'll have to contend with a steady flow of cool, dry air shooting down the western Gulf for 2-3 days. But the frontal boundary will provide a baroclinic zone for a low pressure center to form. With time, as the front weakens, we may see a TD/TS develop in the SW Gulf. But this may not be until Thu/Fri. Once it develops, it could either go west into Mexico or it could get picked up by the next trof digging into the southern U.S. and driven N-NE.
This thing is going to screw up my trip to Lufkin for that bike ride this weekend, I just KNOW it!
The questio is, what wil it do? Some of the moisture already appears to be getting entrained by the front, moving NE toward Florida. But I think some of the energy, maybe the bulk of it, will drift slowly west to the northern BOC/SW Gulf. Once there, it'll have to contend with a steady flow of cool, dry air shooting down the western Gulf for 2-3 days. But the frontal boundary will provide a baroclinic zone for a low pressure center to form. With time, as the front weakens, we may see a TD/TS develop in the SW Gulf. But this may not be until Thu/Fri. Once it develops, it could either go west into Mexico or it could get picked up by the next trof digging into the southern U.S. and driven N-NE.
This thing is going to screw up my trip to Lufkin for that bike ride this weekend, I just KNOW it!
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A SW GOM storm moving N or NNE not good
Upper Texas Coast threat????........Still possible especially if high pressure settles over the SE US. More likely to see gale fore winds across a very large part of the GOM due to SPG between the Low and High. Coastal Flood Warnings already going up along S TX Coast. I think this is a sign of thing to come during the week. As SW GOM developement occurs expect Coastal Flood Watches and Warning to expand NE to cover the rest of Texas and LA.
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The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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southerngale
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