Tropical depression #17 may be forming

#1 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Sep 29, 2003 5:59 am

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

Will recon go into that system today to confirm if TD#17 has formed?Let's wait for the first visbles to see better what is going on but in infrared you can see a rotation near Cozumel.But the future of this system depends on 2 factors the strong shear to the north if it moves that way rip and landmasses affecting the circulation.

WXBUFFJIM · #2 Postby **WXBUFFJIM** » Mon Sep 29, 2003 6:06 am

My quetion is if this system is too close to land, will it still develop?? It could be a depression. But I don't see it being much more than that given how close to land it is.

Jim

#3 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Sep 29, 2003 6:22 am

http://www.tormenta.net/frame_page.asp? ... XNT20.KNHC

The 8:05 Discussion says plenty about the tropical disturbance read third paragrafh.

#4 Postby **wxman57** » Mon Sep 29, 2003 6:47 am

I'm swinging back and forth on this one. Yesterday, it looked like it may move WNW across the Yucatan into the SW Gulf. Today, the convection is moving northward into the southeast Gulf. IF the disturbance moves much farther north, it'll be caught by strong WSW winds aloft and driven across Florida as just a rain event. But there still may be some moisture left behind along the frontal boundary. It's a difficult forecast. Some pretty cool and dry air will be reaching the Gulf on Wednesday. Anything across the SW Gulf will likely entrain this air. Some kind of low may develop, but it could be a hybrid system (at least at first) if it's near the BOC.

Difficult call, but it sure looks like the moisture is about to move NE across Florida this morning....

#5 Postby **wx247** » Mon Sep 29, 2003 7:13 am

I agree wxman57. This northerly track isn't real favorable for a system to develop.

#6 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Sep 29, 2003 7:19 am

It will be a close call agreed on that 57 because if it moves north goodbye but if it meaenders where it is now then it will have the chance to develop but then comes the interaction with land that may play another roll not letting it develop.

Rainband · #7 Postby **Rainband** » Mon Sep 29, 2003 7:21 am

West central and southwest Florida forecast discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay area - Ruskin Florida
235 am EDT Monday Sep 29 2003

Currently...88d showing lots of showers and isolated thunderstorms moving in
from the south. The best coverage is over the Gulf from Englewood
south. However...precipitation has rapidly been developing farther north
into the ecent Gulf...with a line of heavier showers developing
from near New Port Richey...SW into the Gulf. Surface front gradually
moving south...currently located from near gnv to south of cdr. Dew points
quickly drop into the 40s behind this front.

- Term (today-wed)--
seems to be little doubt now that the next few days are going to be
very wet. Models finally in reasonable agreement with the overall
synoptic features...but still have differences in the guidance probability of precipitation.
Have gone with the wetter GFS model given current trends. Deep
tropical moisture and associated surface trough over the southeast Gulf...is
expected to continue moving north...spreading across the S 1/2 of the
forecast area. At the same time...a surface front/trough will sag southward into the
central/ncent forecast area. These two features will combine over the central and S
forecast area...setting the stage for widespread rainfall. Have gone Cat probability of precipitation
tpa south today. Will also issue a new flash flood advisory (flood watch) to include
Pasco...Pinellas...Hillsborough and Polk counties. This watch will be
valid through Wednesday. Tonight...models continue best deep layer
moisture over the central and S forecast area. GFS shows Cat probability of precipitation...while ETA model
generally falls to chance. Have played the middle with likely probability of precipitation...
feeling coverage should drop down with loss of heating. For Tuesday
and Wednesday...the best deep layer moisture remains over the central forecast area.
Will go 70-90% probability of precipitation much of the area...tapering to chance extreme north
forecast area. By Wednesday...will lower all probability of precipitation by 10-20% given uncertainty.

- (Thu-sun)--drying trend to begin Thursday. Upper trough axis
moves into the western Atlantic with drying west/northwest flow aloft over the
area. Surface high over the plains to build into the region Thursday as surface
low/trough finally moves east to NE of the Bahamas. Moisture prognosticated to
remain south of the area as surface high weakens and settles over the
state into the weekend. Temperatures a degree or two below climatology will only
isolated probability of precipitation mainly southern areas.

-
Current observation over the north Gulf show 15-20 knots winds...and expect these
winds to move into the north area today. Will go scec Tarpon north...
but keep around 15 kts Englewood to Tarpon. Scec conditions could
last through Tuesday over the northern waters. A short period of
weaker winds on Wednesday...then possibly near scec all waters Thursday as the
front tries to push farther south and a strong surface ridge builds from
the northwest. Decreasing winds and seas Friday as winds veer to easterly.

Preliminary temperatures/pops:
tpa 082/072 082/073 8795
fmy 083/073 085/074 9774
gif 082/072 083/073 8795
srq 083/073 083/074 9795
bkv 080/069 081/070 6575=

Tbw watches/warnings/advisories...
Flood Watch through Wednesday for: Pasco...Hillsborough...Polk...
Pinellas...Manatee...Hardee...Highlands...Sarasota...DeSoto...
Charlotte...and lee counties.

Small craft exercise caution today Tarpon Springs to Suwannee river.

Rfm/rd

Tropical depression #17 may be forming

Tropical depression #17 may be forming

Yea perhaps

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