Heavy rains starting to move in at this hour. Thoughts and comments welcomed.
Robert
FXUS62 KTBW 290639
AFDTBW
WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
235 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2003
CURRENTLY...88D SHOWING LOTS OF SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSTMS MOVING IN
FROM THE SOUTH. THE BEST COVERAGE IS OVER THE GULF FROM ENGLEWOOD
SOUTH. HOWEVER...PRECIP HAS RAPIDLY BEEN DEVELOPING FARTHER NORTH
INTO THE ECENT GULF...WITH A LINE OF HEAVIER SHOWERS DEVELOPING
FROM NEAR NEW PORT RICHEY...SW INTO THE GULF. SFC FRONT GRADUALLY
MOVING SOUTH...CURRENTLY LOCATED FROM NEAR GNV TO SOUTH OF CDR. TDS
QUICKLY DROP INTO THE 40S BEHIND THIS FRONT.
--SHORT TERM (TODAY-WED)--
SEEMS TO BE LITTLE DOUBT NOW THAT THE NEXT FEW DAYS ARE GOING TO BE
VERY WET. MODELS FINALLY IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL
SYNOPTIC FEATURES...BUT STILL HAVE DIFFERENCES IN THE GUIDANCE POPS.
HAVE GONE WITH THE WETTER GFS MODEL GIVEN CURRENT TRENDS. DEEP
TROPICAL MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED SFC TROF OVER THE SE GULF...IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING NORTH...SPREADING ACROSS THE S 1/2 OF THE
FA. AT THE SAME TIME...A SFC FRONT/TROF WILL SAG SOUTHWARD INTO THE
CENT/NCENT FA. THESE TWO FEATURES WILL COMBINE OVER THE CENT AND S
FA...SETTING THE STAGE FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL. HAVE GONE CAT POPS
TPA SOUTH TODAY. WILL ALSO ISSUE A NEW FFA (FLOOD WATCH) TO INCLUDE
PASCO...PINELLAS...HILLSBOROUGH AND POLK COUNTIES. THIS WATCH WILL BE
VALID THROUGH WED. TONIGHT...MODELS CONTINUE BEST DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE OVER THE CENT AND S FA. GFS SHOWS CAT POPS...WHILE ETA
GENERALLY FALLS TO CHC. HAVE PLAYED THE MIDDLE WITH LIKELY POPS...
FEELING COVERAGE SHOULD DROP DOWN WITH LOSS OF HEATING. FOR TUES
AND WED...THE BEST DEEP LAYER MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE CENT FA.
WILL GO 70-90% POPS MUCH OF THE AREA...TAPERING TO CHC EXTREME N
FA. BY WED...WILL LOWER ALL POPS BY 10-20% GIVEN UNCERTAINTY.
--EXTENDED (THU-SUN)--DRYING TREND TO BEGIN THU. UPPER TROF AXIS
MOVES INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WITH DRYING W/NW FLOW ALOFT OVER THE
AREA. SFC HIGH OVER THE PLAINS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION THU AS SFC
LOW/TROF FINALLY MOVES EAST TO NE OF THE BAHAMAS. MOISTURE PROGGED TO
REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA AS SFC HIGH WEAKENS AND SETTLES OVER THE
STATE INTO THE WEEKEND. TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO BELOW CLIMO WILL ONLY
ISOLD POPS MAINLY SOUTHERN AREAS.
--MARINE--
CURRENT OBS OVER THE N GULF SHOW 15-20 KT WINDS...AND EXPECT THESE
WINDS TO MOVE INTO THE N AREA TODAY. WILL GO SCEC TARPON NORTH...
BUT KEEP AROUND 15 KTS ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON. SCEC CONDITIONS COULD
LAST THROUGH TUES OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS. A SHORT PERIOD OF
WEAKER WINDS ON WED...THEN POSSIBLY NEAR SCEC ALL WATERS THURS AS THE
FRONT TRIES TO PUSH FARTHER SOUTH AND A STRONG SFC RIDGE BUILDS FROM
THE NW. DECREASING WINDS AND SEAS FRI AS WINDS VEER TO EASTERLY.
PRELIM TEMPS/POPS:
TPA 082/072 082/073 8795
FMY 083/073 085/074 9774
GIF 082/072 083/073 8795
SRQ 083/073 083/074 9795
BKV 080/069 081/070 6575=
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY FOR: PASCO...HILLSBOROUGH...POLK...
PINELLAS...MANATEE...HARDEE...HIGHLANDS...SARASOTA...DESOTO...
CHARLOTTE...AND LEE COUNTIES.
SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION TODAY TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER.
RFM/RD
