TWO - 1030 PM

[AussieMark]

000
ABNT20 KNHC 290229
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 PM EDT SUN SEP 28 2003

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
JUAN...LOCATED ABOUT 30 MILES SOUTHWEST OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA...AND
ON TROPICAL STORM KATE...LOCATED ABOUT 1065 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE
AZORES IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN.

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER AND ASSOCIATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS
LOCATED NEAR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND MOVING TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. THIS SYSTEM IS PRODUCING RAINFALL OVER
THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND ADJACENT LAND AREAS. THIS
SYSTEM HAS SOME POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT WHEN IT MOVES OVER THE
SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO IN A DAY OR SO.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
TUESDAY.

FORECASTER LAWRENCE

[bahamaswx]

000
AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER AND ASSOCIATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED NEAR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH.

Sure doesn't look like WNW.. looks more like N.

[Anonymous]

It is moving north, I see no reason why they take this over the Yucatan..

[bahamaswx]

Not to mention it's maintained some very deep convection so far tonight... during a time where its typically lost most deep convection in the past. I see no reason not to expect to see Larry develop from this disturbance once it moves away from land... or TD17 at the VERY least.

[bahamaswx]

It is moving north, I see no reason why they take this over the Yucatan..

Nah, it will atleast move over the NE tip of the Yucatan sometime tonight.

[Anonymous]

I think it is a TD right now, persisting convection and an obvious low level center just southeast of Cozumel moving due north or north north west it seems. I just dont see it moving into the BOC, the westerlies are too strong and the trough is too deep in the GOM. It has also kept a steady northward motion since I first located the low on sattelites at about 6 CDT. I see it getting picked up by this trough and taken into Florida. Maybe the NHC sees something I dont...

EDIT - Yes it probably will move over the tip, but into the BOC? I just dont see it happening for some reason.

[vbhoutex]

I think it is a TD right now, persisting convection and an obvious low level center just southeast of Cozumel moving due north or north north west it seems. I just dont see it moving into the BOC, the westerlies are too strong and the trough is too deep in the GOM. It has also kept a steady northward motion since I first located the low on sattelites at about 6 CDT. I see it getting picked up by this trough and taken into Florida. Maybe the NHC sees something I dont...

EDIT - Yes it probably will move over the tip, but into the BOC? I just dont see it happening for some reason.

What about a split in the energy associated with this disturbance? I've seen that alluded to a couple of times. Seems like a likely scenario to me. It is still pretty far S and the trough is retreating a little to the N. It is going to have to get its' act together and head more N in order to get picked up IMO. Since I was without internet most of the day I haven't had a chance to check things out but at least one of our local OCM's is taking it into the BOC and to S TX or NE MX on Friday. We shall see. I have been starting to lean towards the W GOM scenario the longer this system has stayed S. With the trough exiting E and a high over S TX moving SW it starts to make more since that this could happen. Kind of like a door cracked open a little, I guess.