KATE #13 - DISCUSSION

[AussieMark]

000
WTNT41 KNHC 282026
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM KATE DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT SUN SEP 28 2003

KATE HAS NOT ORGANIZED ANY FURTHER THROUGH THE DAY. SATELLITE DVORAK
T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND KGWC HAVE FALLEN SLIGHTLY...AND REMAIN THE
SAME FROM SAB. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 50 KT AS A
COMPROMISE BETWEEN THESE ESTIMATES...AND IN CONSIDERATION OF THE
FACT THAT THE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE HAS CHANGED LITTLE. THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST INTENSITY MAY HAVE BEEN A BIT GENEROUS AND NOW THE SHIPS
GUIDANCE INTENSIFIES THE SYSTEM TO ONLY 55 KT IN 24 HOURS. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST REFLECTS SHIPS...AND SHOWS LESS STRENGTHENING
THROUGH 72 HOURS. KATE WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN THEREAFTER AS SHEAR
INCREASES AND THE SYSTEM INTERACTS UNFAVORABLY WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH TO ITS NORTHEAST. INTERESTINGLY...THE GFDL CONTINUES TO
INTENSIFY KATE TO 100 KT IN 48 HOURS BUT THE CURRENT UPPER-LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT MAKES THIS DOUBTFUL.

THE FORECAST TRACK HAS CHANGED LITTLE SINCE THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.
KATE IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN A GENERALLY NORTHEASTWARD MOTION NEAR
10 KT THROUGH 36 HOURS...AND THEN DECELERATE AND MAKE A LEFT TURN
IN 2-3 DAYS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A BUILDING MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE
EAST OF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SHIFTED A
BIT TO THE WEST IN THE 4 TO 5 DAY RANGE...SUGGESTING THAT THIS TURN
MAY BE SHARPER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST.

FORECASTER PASCH/BERG

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 28/2100Z 25.2N 42.6W 50 KT
12HR VT 29/0600Z 26.3N 41.6W 50 KT
24HR VT 29/1800Z 27.7N 40.0W 50 KT
36HR VT 30/0600Z 28.9N 38.4W 55 KT
48HR VT 30/1800Z 29.9N 37.6W 55 KT
72HR VT 01/1800Z 31.0N 38.0W 55 KT
96HR VT 02/1800Z 31.5N 39.5W 50 KT
120HR VT 03/1800Z 32.0N 41.0W 45 KT