TWD 2:05PM......GOM Development!

[KatDaddy]

Check this out everyone

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE...BROAD AREA LOW PRES DOMINATES THE W
CARIBBEAN WITH A 1007 MB LOW PRES ANALYZED NEAR 19N85W DRIFTING
W. A WEAK LOW PRES 1007 MB HAS DEVELOPED ALONG A DISSIPATING
FRONTAL TROUGH WHICH STRETCHES FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA SW ACROSS
THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. THESE TWO
LOW PRES EXPECTED TO MERGE WITH BROAD LOW PRES CONTINUING S GULF
OF MEXICO. CLIMATOLOGY AND UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS SUPPORT
POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

[lilbump3000]

Well looks like we might have T.D. 17 in the BOC early next week.

[Rainband]

Well looks like we might have T.D. 17 in the BOC early next week.

Just what Florida needs more rain.

[KatDaddy]

The BOC system will likely remain nearly stationary through the middle of next week. By then strong high pressure is forecast to build over the SE US and NE GOM. This would open the door for a NW to N motion.

The tropical season may still not be over for Texas this year. Remember 1989....TS Allison in June, H Chantal in July, and H Jerry in Oct. Perhaps we will see three systems again......hmmmmmmm

[Rainband]

The BOC system will likely remain nearly stationary through the middle of next week. By then strong high pressure is forecast to build over the SE US and NE GOM. This would open the door for a NW to N motion.

The tropical season may still not be over for Texas this year. Remember 1989....TS Allison in June, H Chantal in July, and H Jerry in Oct. Perhaps we will see three systems again......hmmmmmmm

The southern GOM doesn't mean the BOC does it. Wouldn't they have said the BOC instead of the S GOM..at any rate you guys can have the system..we don't need anymore rain. To early to tell what and where at this stage in the game IMHO

[lilbump3000]

I think the BOC is the same as the S. GOM.

[Rainband]

I think the BOC is the same as the S. GOM.

Then why call it the BOC

[lilbump3000]

I don't know, the BOC is in the southern gulf.

[KatDaddy]

BOC is further SW over the extreme SW GOM.

We do not need it either too much rain recently. Lets send it LA so they do not feel left out

[Josephine96]

Yes we indeed may have TD 17 getting ready to be born. It should be interesting to see where it goes.

If a front comes down or the current 1 stalls then the slingshot could take place if not.. the west GOM may have to deal with this

[lilbump3000]

I live in New Orleans and i love the storms when they come, we only had Bill this year at the end of july, its time for us to get another one.

[Rainband]

BOC is further SW over the extreme SW GOM.

We do not need it either too much rain recently. Lets send it LA so they do not feel left out

Our locals agree at the moment that this will go west!! http://www.srh.noaa.gov/data/TBW/AFDTBW.0309281816

[downburst]

KatDaddy i like your reasoning on the NW caribbean system. Many a tropical systems have gotten in the BOC and hung around for days before making little or no movement .

[KatDaddy]

With Strong high pressure being in place to the N and E expect a very large area of possible gale force winds across the GOM from TX eastward to NE GOM. TS Frances in 98 had a similar setup with strong high pressure over SE US.

[ColdFront77]

The current expectation of the high pressure building into the southeastern United States doesn't necessarily mean it won't continue moving (most likely southeasterly with the steering pattern).