Juan forecast, halifax in trouble

[Derek Ortt]

http://www.nwhhc.com/atlantic15fd.html

yes, I do have the correct link today, unlike yesterday when I screwed up and gave the kate link by mistake (what happens when I try watching boxing and type at the same time, lol)

[OtherHD]

Is Halifax really in trouble? It seems like everytime a tropical system hits Canada, they come out fine. They didn't have many problems with Gustav, Karen, or Michael. Will Juan really be that bad?

[george_r_1961]

Unlike most hurricanes..Juan will retain tropical characteristics..as well as hurricane status..until a few hours after landfall. And there is till enough convection to transfer some of the strong mid level winds to the surface. Im surprised Environmment Canada hasnt mentioned tornado threat yet. in a nutshell Nova Scotia is in for a rough night.

[Steve]

OtherHD,

The key to whether or not they're going to be in trouble is the fact that there is a pretty substantial funnel shaped bay there. Joe B brought that point up on yesterday's TU and showed a Map Quest look at the city. A funnel shaped bay would be one where the opening is wide at the mouth of the bay, but it narrows as you get closer to the head.

Shaped like ^. So the possibility of landfall associated with storm surge at astronomical high tide (as per TPC) could result in some serious coastal flooding. Fortunately, with the system accelerating north (now at 20MPH), there's not going to be a whole lot of time for the SE winds to back up water a few days ahead of the system. I'd expect some serious but temporary flooding.

Steve

[Derek Ortt]

This rapid motion also will result in the storm hitting at nearly the same time as the storm generated waves will be arriving on the Nova Scotia coast; thus, creating a slightly higher storm surge