According to kates forecast track

[Guest]

It shows kate curving out to sea but by thursday it shows kate recurving back towards the U.S. I was looking at the TWO forecasted tracks of kate both on the dailypress tropical weather forecast map and NOAA forecast map both showing kate going out to sea then recurving back towards the U.S. I believe it has something to do with a trough bring kate towards the west. The 11pm discussion mentions a little about it. Does anyone else viewed the forecasted track that I did. Please respond back with any comments on this?

[ColdFront77]

A ridge to Kate's north will cause the storm to move westward, not a trough moving toward the system from the west.

[Guest]

is kate forecasted to curve back towards the U.S. according to the NOAA forecast track and the dailypress forecast track which shows this turn. Have you seen the forecasted track. I was just wondering because it does look like it to me.

[ColdFront77]

Yes I say the National Hurricane Center's official forecast track... which shows the westward turn at the five day mark.

First of all the this is going past day three and second of all it may not continue on a westward track. The bottom line is, it bears watching.

[JetMaxx]

We're nearly into October....with Kate already as far north as she is, the odds of her ever coming anywhere close to the U.S. mainland is virtually zero. The troughs are just too deep and frequent.

[ColdFront77]

I agree, Perry. The westward turn forecast model guidance and the official forecast track indicate doesn't mean an ultimate westward movement for Kate or any other tropical system.

However, odd things have happened in tropical meteorology over the years.

[bahamaswx]

A turn towards the west in a few days does seem likely, but she will be far enough north that any slight weakness in the ridge will allow her to turn north again... another track similar to Kyle is unlikely at this point in time IMO.

[ColdFront77]

Here is the National Hurricane Center's Forecast Five Day Forecast Track as of 11:00 PM EDT: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ftp/graphics/AT ... 0258W5.gif

Remember what I mentioned above.

[bahamaswx]

A lot of models have suddenly changed their tune and don't forecast a westward motion anymore.

Meanwhile, I've noted that some are hinting at an EPAC storm developing and moving it into Baja California. I'm sure after Ignacio and Marty they don't need anymore :p

[Guest]

now I understand that kate may or may not make a west turn and that the forecast may be an error but definetly something to watch.

[weatherlover427]

Meanwhile, I've noted that some are hinting at an EPAC storm developing and moving it into Baja California. I'm sure after Ignacio and Marty they don't need anymore :p

What part of Baja California? Depending on the portion of the peninsula that it moves into, I might see some moisture from it.

[wxman57]

"Toward the U.S." is relative - Kate will be thousands of miles from the U.S. when it bumps into high pressure to the north. The high will force a brief jog to the west before Kate heads north and out to sea. With the deep trof across the east U.S. cosat there is virtually zero chance of Kate coming anywhere near the U.S.

Here the 144hr surface map. Note the high pressure north of Kate - thus the WNW movement. But that movement will be brief, as Kate should turn north soon after.

<img src="http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/06/images/gfs_slp_144s.gif">

[ColdFront77]

"Toward the U.S." is relative - Kate will be thousands of miles from the U.S. when it bumps into high pressure to the north. The high will force a brief jog to the west before Kate heads north and out to sea. With the deep trof across the east U.S. cosat there is virtually zero chance of Kate coming anywhere near the U.S.

That is what I was saying above.

[ChaserUK]

I do wonder about Kate you know - the UK has to be hit by a true hurricane as some time!

[bahamaswx]

Meanwhile, I've noted that some are hinting at an EPAC storm developing and moving it into Baja California. I'm sure after Ignacio and Marty they don't need anymore :p

What part of Baja California? Depending on the portion of the peninsula that it moves into, I might see some moisture from it.

CMC wants to move it into the southern tip, while the UKMET also wants to spin up something, move it towards the southern tip of Baja Califnornia, and then veer it west, out to sea.

[WeatherEmperor]

I wouldnt worry so much about Kate. Going to be a fish eventually. It is the end of September to beginning of October. If they are that far out this time of the year, they are fish.

[stu]

Kate or the scruddy remains could well affect North West Europe by next weekend.

[Guest]

What I meant by towards the U.S, I was meaning heading back in the opposite direction. Who's to say kate couldn't effect the U.S. in spite of the situation.....my dad told me about a hurricane that went out to sea, and the meterologist was backing it up. Only within the next several days the hurricane turned around and threaten the eastcoast. So nothings too impossible..I still say it bears watching just the same. I for one will continue to monitor its progress...

[Josephine96]

Good observation Windy... Nothing is impossible in the tropics... even when we are about to start October

[ColdFront77]

Windy, maybe your father is thinking about this.....

Hurricane Kyle from last year... notice the date it formed (including tropical depression status):

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif