Juan Heads for Nova Scotia Landfall

[donsutherland1]

As of 11 p.m., Hurricane Juan was centered at 36.8N 63.8W and continuing to track to the north-northwest (340 degrees vs. 330 degrees for the earlier 6-hour period) at 9 mph. Juan was also continuing to pack maximum sustained winds of 105 mph, though it appeared that his strengthening had ceased.

On its current trajectory, which is likely to continue with perhaps a gradual turn more to the north, Juan is moving into an area in which the historic risk of hitting or passing close to Halifax is rapidly increasing.

Overall, the overall pattern, computer guidance, and analogs support the idea that Juan will make landfall in Nova Scotia, likely as a Category 1 hurricane.

Analogs:

The following two storms offer some idea as to Juan's likely path which, if adjusted for its current location, is mainly consistent with the computer guidance, TPC and Canadian Hurricane Centre track.

Hurricane #3 (1878):

<img src="http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/1878/3/track.gif">

Hurricane Blanche (1975):

<img src="http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/1975/BLANCHE/track.gif">

Ocean Temperatures:

Although Juan will be moving over cooler waters beginning tomorrow morning.

Current water temperatures near or along Juan's likely path include:

Buoy 44142 La Have Bank: 68.4
Buoy 44258 Halifax Harbor: 65.8

Nevertheless, Juan's time over such cooler waters will likely be short-lived prior to landfall. In addition, Juan is not expected to face significant wind shear prior to landfall. In fact, the area of Juan's likely path has experienced diminishing wind shear over the past day.

Hence, Juan's weakening will likely be sufficiently gradual to ensure that he will make landfall as a Category 1 hurricane later tomorrow. Based on model data and analogs, Juan's probable maximum sustained winds should be between 75 mph and 85 mph at landfall.

Computer Guidance:

The computer guidance, particularly the reliable ECMWF offers good confidence that Juan will make landfall. However, the ECMWF brings Juan dangerously close to extreme northeastern Maine prior to landfall, so it is likely that extreme northeastern Maine will likely experience at least some high winds and heavy rains.

<img src="http://www5.wright-weather.com/bb/attachment.php?s=&postid=112391">

Overall, based on the full range of analogs, computer guidance, and current track, I believe that Juan will make landfall somewhat to the west of Halifax even as its course turns more northerly overnight and tomorrow as he approaches stiffer steering currents, which should probably preclude a direct hit on Maine.

[donsutherland1]

Overnight, Juan continued to behave pretty much as expected.

First, he retained his maximum sustained winds of 105 mph.

Second, he continued his gradual curve more to the north:

Between 11 am and 5 pm yesterday: 330 degrees
Between 5 pm and 11 pm yesterday: 340 degrees
Between 11 pm yesterday and 5 am this morning: 343 degrees

Given this gradual turn to the north, along with acceleration in its forward speed, the danger to easternmost Maine is dissipating. A look at the latest upper air steering currents also continues to preclude a Maine landfall. Therefore, at this point, landfall just to the west of Halifax still looks reasonable.

Gradual weakening is likely prior to landfall, but it still appears that Juan will come ashore with maximum sustained winds between 75 mph and 85 mph.

[montrealboy]

http://www.atl.ec.gc.ca/weather/hurrica ... letin.html

here are some excerpts of the Canada's National Hurricane Center at 9AM AST:

THE HIGH WINDS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN THE TOPPLING OF SOME TREES AND
LARGE LIMBS RESULTING IN POWER OUTAGES. LOCAL FLOODING DUE TO HEAVY
RAINS CAN BE EXPECTED. OF PARTICULAR CONCERN IS THE NEAR PHASING OF
JUAN WITH HIGH TIDE THIS EVENING ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST. HORTENSE
IN SEPTEMBER 1996 WAS ACCOMPANIED BY A 1.0+ METRE STORM SURGE AND
WE SHOULD EXPECT SOMETHING SIMILAR WITH JUAN. PRESENTLY WE ARE
EXPERIENCING NEAR PERIGEAN SPRING TIDES WITH HIGH TIDE THIS EVENING
IN HALIFAX AT 22:45 PM. ATHOUGH THIS IS THE LOWER HIGH TIDE OF THE
DAY... IT IS STILL ONLY 20 CM BELOW HIGHEST ASTRONOMICAL TIDE.
THE BEST ESTIMATE FOR THE MAGNITUDE OF THE STORM SURGE IS 1.0+
METRES TO THE WEST OF JUAN AND 1.5+ METRES TO THE EAST OF ITS
PROJECTED LANDFALL.
THE NEAR CONCIDENCE OF THE STORM SURGE WITH THIS HIGH TIDE WILL
LIKELY LEAD TO SOME COASTAL FLOODING INCLUDING POSSIBLY THE DOWNTOWN
WATERFRONT OF HALIFAX. WE SHALL KNOW BETTER THE LIKELIHOOD OF THIS
LATER TODAY...NEARER THE ARRIVAL TIME. THIS PROBLEM WILL BE
COMPOUNDED BY THE ARRIVAL OF VERY LARGE AND DAMAGING WAVES IN THE
COASTAL ZONE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. AREAS OF PARTICULAR
CONCERN ARE FROM THE MEDWAY HARBOUR TO ECUM SECUM SO A STORM
SURGE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THESE SECTIONS OF THE COASTLINE.

JUAN IS PRESENTLY MOVING AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A DEEP LAYERED
RIDGE. RECENTLY JUAN HAS TURNED NORTHWARD AND HAS BEGUN TO
ACCELERATE. FURTHER ACCELERATION IS EXPECTED LATER THIS MORNING
AND THIS AFTERNOON AS IT COMES INCREASINGLY UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF STRONGER WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH AMPLITUDE MAJOR CONTOUR
TROUGH MOVING TOWARDS THE EAST COAST. THE CONSENSUS OF THE FORECAST
MODELS SUCH AS THE GFDL UKMET AND NOGAPS SHOWS THAT THE SYSTEM
MAKES LANDFALL CLOSE TO HALIFAX LATE THIS EVENING AND WE ARE JUST
SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN OUR PREVIOUS TRACK PREVIOUS TRACK. WE FEEL
THAT THE REGIONAL MODELS SUCH AS ETA, GEM AND ALSO THE CANADIAN
GLOBAL WHICH CARRY A CENTRE INTO THE MOUTH OF THE BAY OF FUNDY ARE
TOO FAR TO THE WEST...AND WITH THE RECENT TURN TO THE NORTH THIS
SOLUTION NOW SEEMS INCREASINGLY UNLIKELY. GEM HOWEVER DOES HAVE A
TRACK SOLUTION SOMEWHAT SIMILAR TO OURS...IF YOU FOLLOW THE STORM
CENTRE CLOSE TO THE 500 MB VORT MAX. WE CONCUR THEREFORE WITH THE
LASTEST NHC GUIDANCE WHICH SHOWS THE STORM MAKING LANDFALL IN
THE VICINITY OF HALIFAX OR ST MARGARETS BAY LATE THIS EVENING.
...STILL A MARGINAL HURRICANE AT THAT TIME WITH MAX WINDS OF
ABOUT 65 KNOTS.
JUAN CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH WARM WATER NEAR 26C BUT WILL MOVE
PROGRESSIVELY OVER COLDER WATER NORTH OF THE GULF STREAM AT
40N FROM LATE THIS MORNING ONWARDS. RELATIVELY WARM WATERS
LIE BETWEEN THE GULF STREAM AND THE NOVA SCOTIA COAST...RUNNING
ABOVE 18C. THESE TEMPERATURES WILL STILL CAUSE THE STORM TO WEAKEN
BUT THE WEAKENING TREND MAY BE SLOWED SOMEWHAT LEADING TO THE
FORECAST OF A LANDFALLING HURRICANE SIMILAR TO HORTENSE IN 1996
AND BLANCHE IN 1975. JUAN WILL WEAKEN AFTER LANDFALL AS IT TRACKS
NORTHWARD OVER NOVA SCOTIA AND TRANSFORMS INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL
STORM IN THE GULF OF ST LAWRENCE EARLY MONDAY.

[montrealboy]

For continuous updates on weather observations and forecasts for Halifax Nova Scotia Canada,

please click this link:

http://weatheroffice.ec.gc.ca/forecast/city_e.html?yhz

[donsutherland1]

Just a quick update...

Juan is now centered at 39.4N 64.1W and is now heading north (360 degrees) at 20 mph. As he has moved over cooler waters, his top winds have diminished just slightly to 100 mph.

Over the next 6 hours look for the north and possibly ever so slight east of north track to be sustained as Juan accelerates. Overall, looking at both model guidance and analogs (particularly the Hurricane #3 of 1878), it appears likely that Juan will pass within 50 miles of Halifax (most likely within 35 miles or less).

For what it's worth, Juan is now in an area in which hurricanes have historically passed within 180 nautical miles of Halifax 80% of the time.

https://www.cnmoc.navy.mil/nmosw/tr8203 ... ig31-9.gif

Analogs, radar and model guidance suggest that Juan will be no exception.

[george_r_1961]

Although tornadoes are a rarity in Nova Scotia one or two may occur very near and to the right where the center makes landfall. The geatest threat will be this afternoon and evening. Any tornadoes that do occur are likely to be small and short lived however.

[BEER980]

So the actual wind effect would be 95 - 105 mph at landfall if you factor in a 20 mph forward motion. That based on 75 - 85 winds.

[montrealboy]

Here are 2 Canadian National Media Networks which are talking about Juan. As opposed to last time when Isabel fizzled out before arriving to Canada, I think the media should hype the potentiel damage about Juan because it hasn't hit land yet and has not lost that much power even if it is going through colder waters. Halifax, Nova Scotia is not as large city as compared to Toronto, Ontario but still it is quite populated.

http://www.cbc.ca/stories/2003/09/28/hu ... juan030928

http://www.ctv.ca/servlet/ArticleNews/s ... TopStories

[Josephine96]

Canada has a National Hurricane Center..? lol

[ChaserUK]

even if its only a marginal hurricane it will still pack a wallop. I just hope people in the potential area of landfall take it seriously without panicking obviously!!

[donsutherland1]

Hurricane Juan continues to accelerate to the north...

As of the 5 p.m. AST TPC report, Juan is currently centered at 41.2N 64.1W. Juan is heading north (360 degrees) at 23 mph. Juan's maximum sustained winds remain at 100 mph.

Currently, two buoys near its track are reporting the following winds:

Buoy 44142 La Have Bank (42.50N 64.02W): 27.2 Knots/Gusts to 35.0 Knots

Buoy 44137 East Scotia Slope (42.26N 62.00W): 33.0 Knots/Gusts to 40.8 Knots

Overall, the track just to the west of Halifax continues to look good.

[montrealboy]

http://www.weatheroffice.ec.gc.ca/warni ... e.html?ns1

Environment Canada's Official Canadian Weather Warnings
HALIFAX METRO AND HALIFAX COUNTY WEST
3:55 PM ADT SUNDAY 28 SEPTEMBER 2003

HEAVY RAINFALL WARNING FOR
HALIFAX METRO AND HALIFAX COUNTY WEST CONTINUED
RAIN HEAVY AT TIMES WILL BEGIN THIS EVENING GIVING 50 TO 80
MILLIMETRES BY OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.


WIND WARNING FOR
HALIFAX METRO AND HALIFAX COUNTY WEST CONTINUED
STRONG WINDS GUSTING TO AS HIGH AS 150 KM/H WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING
OR AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.


STORM SURGE WARNING FOR
HALIFAX METRO AND HALIFAX COUNTY WEST CONTINUED
HIGH WATER CREATED BY HURRICANE JUAN WILL BE POTENTIALLY DAMAGING TO
THE COASTAL ZONE TONIGHT.


HURRICANE JUAN APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL NEAR HALIFAX THIS EVENING. IT WILL THEN WEAKEN AND TRAVEL NORTHWARD CROSSING OVER PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND TONIGHT. HEAVY RAINS AND STRONG WINDS ARE FORECAST TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF JUAN.

HIGHER THAN NORMAL WATER LEVELS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST THIS EVENING DUE TO THE ARRIVAL OF HURRICANE JUAN JUST BEFORE HIGH TIDE. THIS COULD POTENTIALLY LEAD TO SOME COASTAL FLOODING. THE PROBLEM WILL BE FURTHER COMPOUNDED TONIGHT BY THE ARRIVAL OF VERY LARGE AND POTENTIALLY DAMAGING OCEAN WAVES IN THE COASTAL ZONE. AREAS OF PARTICULAR CONCERN ARE FROM THE MEDWAY HARBOUR TO ECUM SECUM WITH HIGHEST LEVELS EXPECTED EAST OF THE STORM TRACK

[montrealboy]

Text Forecast from Environment Canada
Halifax: Issued 4:00 PM ADT Sunday 28 September 2003
Tonight .. Rain heavy at times beginning this evening then tapering to a few showers overnight. Risk of thundershowers. Amount 50 to 80 mm. Coastal fog. Wind increasing to east 80 gusting to 140 km/h this evening then diminishing to southwest 40 gusting to 60 overnight. Low 18.
Monday .. Cloudy with showers. Risk of a thundershower. Additional amount 10 to 15 mm. Coastal fog. Wind south 40 gusting to 60 km/h diminishing to south 30 in the afternoon. High 22. UV index 2 or low.

[montrealboy]

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR NOVA SCOTIA ISSUED BY ENVIRONMENT
CANADA AT 5:37 PM ADT SUNDAY 28 SEPTEMBER 2003.

HURRICANE JUAN APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH IS FORECAST TO MAKE
LANDFALL NEAR HALIFAX THIS EVENING. IT WILL THEN WEAKEN AND MOVE
NORTHWARDS ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA AND PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND OVERNIGHT.
HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER MOST OF NOVA SCOTIA
TONIGHT. HIGHER THAN NORMAL WATER LEVELS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE
ATLANTIC COAST THIS EVENING DUE TO THE ARRIVAL OF HURRICANE JUAN
NEAR HIGH TIDE. THIS COULD POTENTIALLY LEAD TO SOME COASTAL
FLOODING. THE PROBLEM WILL BE FURTHER COMPOUNDED BY THE ARRIVAL OF
VERY LARGE AND POTENTIALLY DAMAGING OCEAN WAVES IN THE COASTAL
ZONE. AREAS OF PARTICULAR CONCERN ARE FROM THE MEDWAY HARBOUR TO
ECUM SECUM WITH HIGHEST LEVELS EXPECTED EAST OF THE STORM TRACK.
PLEASE CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PUBLIC FORECASTS AND WARNING MESSAGES
FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION.

[ColdFront77]

Interesting... Hopefully the Environment Canada always says, "thundershowers," rather than "thunderstorms" on a regular basis. I wouldn't think Juan would bring "showery precipitation" to that region.

[Derek Ortt]

Why do they seldom issue an outright Hurricane Warning? Last one was for Michael after it rapidly intensified just before landfall, and that was only with 90 minutes of lead time

[donsutherland1]

As of 9 p.m., Hurricane Juan was centered close to 42.6N 64.1W and continuing to head to the north. He was approximately 135 miles south of Halifax.

Very close to its path, Buoy 44142 La Have Bank was recording sustained winds of 36.9 Knots and gusts to 54.4 Knots. The central pressure there was 28.78" or approximately 975 MB.

Halifax Harbor was registering sustained winds of 31.1 Knots with gusts to 38.9 Knots.

[Josephine96]

Thanks for the info about the Canadians Don... I wonder how rough it will be for them up there...

[donsutherland1]

John,

Juan's hurricane-force winds only extend out approximately 35 miles from the center. Tropical storm-force winds extend 230 miles.

The major problem will probably be the tidal surge into Halifax Harbour. Due to Juan's fast movement, the torrential rainfall will not last so long that it would result in severe flooding.

One caveat about the winds is in order. As tropical cyclones begin to undergo extratropical transformation, their wind field expands. Although this process probably will take place mainly after landfall, I don't think one can completely rule at its initiation just prior to landfall. Hence even as Juan weakens somewhat prior to landfall, his area of hurricane- and tropical storm-force winds might actually have increased somewhat.

Nevertheless, the tidal surge will probably be the largest problem. Some wind damage, particularly to trees and some structures is likely, though it probably will not be substantial.

[donsutherland1]

At 11 pm AST, Hurricane Juan was located at 44.5N 63.8W after having made landfall approximately 30 miles southwest of Halifax. His top sustained winds were 80 mph and he was racing north (4 degrees) at 32 mph.

Juan had made landfall as a Category 1 hurricane.