Re Intensification NOT a surprise--

[Guest]

from 1055 wxrisk discussion...



Lastly now that EVERYONE including the hurricane center is on the downside of Isabel it is probably time to change tactics and bring her back. I see quite a lot of talk that Isabel may not even stay hurricane when she makes landfall.... But I will go against that strongly and argue that she will build back to a strong category 2 a possibly a moderate category 3 hurricane by the time she makes landfall.

I am anxiously all waiting the latest RECON..... But there hasn't been one since 7z... so I can no longer delay with the morning update. Isabel is clearly category 2 hurricane at least based on the 7z Recon. The mean sea level pressure was 956 MB but it may be a little higher than that and I would not be surprised if at 11 AM the hurricane center had Isabel up to a Cat 2 status. ...

Most of the folks that are now talking about Isabel's demise are pretty much the same lope heads that were forecasting Isabel to turn out the sea or come up to New York City. In any event there is precedent for what has been going on Isabel over last 24 hours. In July 1996 hurricane Bertha a very early season Cape Verde hurricane... stalled east of Florida in almost the exact same location as Isabel is currently situated. The entire western half of hurricane BERTHA was shared off and it barely maintained hurricane status and many had even been a tropical storm at one point. However as she crossed the Gulf stream heading for Wilmington the pressure fell 25 millibars in 12 hours and she moved back into category to status.

[rob8303]

If this thing drops 25 mb in 12 hours from 958 to 933, WE ARE IN HUGE TROUBLE!!

[rainydaze]

You've done a great job with Isabel DT.

[WXBUFFJIM]

That would be a devastating blow. As bad as it is now with extensive damage potential. Yikes

Jim

[JetMaxx]

I'm not sure 933 mb is feasible in that area of North Carolina around Cape Lookout to Ocracoke....Hugo bottomed out at 934 mb near CHS at landfall, and that was a record low pressure/ strongest hurricane to strike South Carolina.

The record hurricane for Wilmington pressure-wise was Hazel in 1954.....938 mb and 130-140 mph. I won't be shocked if Isabel is in that same range (938-940 mb/ 135-140 mph)....but I'm more inclined to believe it will be a 942-947 mb/ 125-130 mph hurricane similar to Frederic (1979) and Betsy (1965) at landfall -- and they were both devastating.