5 PM advisory=21.2n-51.9w 140 mph west at 12 275 degrees

[cycloneye]

http://www.hwn.org/hapt33us.htm

[cycloneye]

http://www.hwn.org/hadt43us.htm

Here is the discussion.

[SolakNC]

Dead links

[wow]

wow, check this out from the discussion. signs of further strengthening?

"PEAK T-NUMBER OF 7.1...OR 143 KT...AT 1815Z"

"IT IS
QUITE POSSIBLE THAT ISABEL IS A LITTLE STRONGER THAN THE ADVISORY
INTENSITY INDICATES...BUT WE PREFER TO USE THE 3-HOUR ODT VALUES TO
SMOOTH OUT ANY INTENSITY FLUCTUATIONS."

[SolakNC]

Now they're working

[Johnny]

WTNT33 KNHC 102025
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
HURRICANE ISABEL ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM AST WED SEP 10 2003

...DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE ISABEL STRENGTHENS...

AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF INTENSE HURRICANE ISABEL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 51.9 WEST OR ABOUT
685 MILES ...1100 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD
ISLANDS.

ISABEL IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NOW NEAR 140 MPH...220 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE
NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO...WITH POSSIBLE FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY
AFTERWARDS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES... 95 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 185 MILES...295 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 942 MB...27.82 INCHES.

LARGE OCEAN SWELLS...CREATING HAZARDOUS SURF CONDITIONS...WILL BEGIN
TO AFFECT THE LEEWARD ISLANDS BY THURSDAY.

REPEATING THE 5 PM AST POSITION...21.2 N... 51.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...140 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 942 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
AT 11 PM AST.

FORECASTER STEWART

[msbee]

the discussion says models now suggest again a jog to the West South West?
NO!
don't tell me!!!!!!!!!

[wow]

with Isabel being as strong as it is and most of the models initializing her much weaker, i'd expect it to continue on a general westward motion, minimize any WSW movement... before starting WNW again as she closes in on the Bahamas.

[CocoaBill]

Do I hear Donna again? St. Augustine - Savannah?