Isabel update, keep a close eye on the track!!!!

[WXBUFFJIM]

Hurricane Isabel remains a dangerous category 4 hurricane. At 11 AM EDT, the center of Dangerous hurricane Isabel was located near latitude 19.6 north, longitude 46.9 west or about 980 miles east of the northern Leeward Islands. Movement is toward the west northwest at 14 mph. However a turn toward the west and west southwest is expected in the next 24 hours. This will bring the center of Isabel close to or just north of the northern Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico by late Saturday into early Sunday. The Bahamas could also be directly threatened by Isabel by Monday and Tuesday of next week as the system moves back to the west northwest. A ridge of high pressure will likely remain north of Isabel during the entire 7 day period, thus a mainly west motion with Isabel. Folks in Florida need to keep a close eye on Isabel by Wednesday of next week.

Maximum sustained winds are 135 mph with higher gusts. Isabel could strengthen slightly further over the next 24 hours. Then the intensity will likely level off and fluctuations will likely occur. Eyewall dynamics will greatly determine the intensity of this system. An eyewall replacement cycle occurred this morning and the potential exists for more eyewall replacement cycles and fluctuations in intensity are common in major hurricanes.

Minimum central pressure is 948 mb or 27.99 inches.

Repeating the 11 am edt position, 19.6 north, 46.9 west, movement wnw 14 mph, maximum sustained winds 135 mph, minimum central pressure 948 mb.

Jim

[JCT777]

Thanks for the update, Jim. Glad you are on top of the situation!

[Colin]

The EC also needs to keep a very close eye as this may make a hard right turn up the coast... :o