2026 CPAC Season

[cycloneye]

With +ENSO in the cards and having El Niño present by the summer and fall,is going to cause this basin to have more activity. Here are some tips:

Storm Count: On average, the Central Pacific sees 4 to 5 tropical cyclones per year. This includes systems that form within the basin and those that move in from the Eastern Pacific.

Peak Activity: While storms can occur throughout the season, activity typically peaks between July and September.

Landfall Rarity: Direct hits on land are rare due to the lack of large landmasses, but significant impacts occur occasionally in Hawaii, such as Hurricane Iniki (1992) and Hurricane Ioke (2006).

Climate Drivers: Activity is heavily influenced by the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO); El Niño years typically see increased activity, while La Niña years often result in quieter seasons.

[Yellow Evan]

AI slop.

[Kingarabian]

Could be a bigger Mexico season vs Hawaii season since we still need to see a better PDO/PMM setup. Lots of time for this to adjust.

[Kingarabian]

Interesting to see if we have a big CPAC season.

[cycloneye]

Interesting to see if we have a big CPAC season.

Yes. Look at this in your neck of the woods.

[cycloneye]

Wow, those westerlies. Kingarabian, you may see a fairly actice CPAC and maybe some visits to where you are.

[Kingarabian]

Have to see how much the waters east of Hawaii warm. +PMM will help for sure.

[Yellow Evan]

I suppose if we are to have a separate thread for the CPAC (personally think it is pretty redundant), parts of this post apply here too.

With the elevating chances of a super El Nino, likelihood of a strong El Nino, and the persistence of a strong +PMM (EPAC MDR running about .6C above 1991-2010 averages with the CPAC running about 1.0C above), I'm willing to entertain ~200 ACE. This is a far better setup than 2023 with more of a basin wide +ENSO event and the stronger +PMM increases thermodynamic potential of the basin, especially further west. Odds are at least 1 or 2 TCs will form in the CPAC and at least 1 or 2 TCs will achieve major hurricane status in the CPAC with this pattern, with the potential for significantly more.

[TomballEd]

Have to see how much the waters east of Hawaii warm. +PMM will help for sure.

The more memorable ones come up from the south and avoid land interactions with Hawaii and the cooler waters often found E of the islands. Iniki and Iwa come to mind in years with warm CPAC temps.

[Kingarabian]

This MJO/Rossby event is allowing for another Kona low that could potentially bring more flooding to the Hawaiian Islands next week. These lows have been causing a lot of problems. Also waters have been anomalously warm in the area due to the PMM and incoming El Nino.