Tropical Wave ESE of Lesser Antilles (Is Invest 94L)

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Fri Jul 18 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Central Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave interacting with a broad area of low pressure is
producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms more than 800 miles
southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. Environmental conditions could
become marginally conducive for gradual development late this
weekend through early next week as the system moves westward to
west-northwestward around 10 mph. By the middle of next week,
environmental conditions are forecast to become unfavorable for
further development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Hagen

[cycloneye]

[AtlanticWind]

First system highlighted in tropical Atlantic I believe.

[cycloneye]

ASCAT hits wave and shows no defined circulation but winds are up to 34kt.

[Teban54]

For a year that had been tainted with "cool MDR" talks and a time of the season when SAL runs rampant, the waves this season definitely feel quite impressive. Even some of the earlier ones that had no chance to develop still put up a slow for what they were.

[HurricaneAndre2008]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Sat Jul 19 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Central Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave interacting with a broad area of low pressure is
producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms around 900 miles
west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. Environmental conditions
are marginally conducive for gradual development of this system
during the next few days, as it moves westward to west-northwestward
around 10 mph. By the middle of next week, environmental conditions
are forecast to become unfavorable for further development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Jelsema

[weeniepatrol]

For a year that had been tainted with "cool MDR" talks and a time of the season when SAL runs rampant, the waves this season definitely feel quite impressive. Even some of the earlier ones that had no chance to develop still put up a slow for what they were.

Oops!

[cycloneye]

First visble images.

[cycloneye]

First visble images.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sat Jul 19 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

1. Central Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave interacting with a broad area of low pressure is
producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms about 900 miles
west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. Environmental conditions
are marginally conducive for gradual development of this system
during the next few days, as it moves westward to west-northwestward
around 10 mph. By the middle of next week, environmental conditions
are forecast to become unfavorable for further development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.



Forecaster Hagen

[wxman57]

It's heading into a region of increasing wind shear by Monday. Not much of a future.

[Blinhart]

It's heading into a region of increasing wind shear by Monday. Not much of a future.

I was wondering why it didn't have a higher percentage. Looking pretty good right now.

[cycloneye]

Not much data from this recent pass that missed the NE side where the most turning is happening.

[Hurricane2022]

It's heading into a region of increasing wind shear by Monday. Not much of a future.

It could become a brief TS/TD.
 https://x.com/daniloevan11/status/1946568798380716103

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Sat Jul 19 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Central Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave interacting with a broad area of low pressure is
producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms more than 900 miles
west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. Environmental conditions
appear marginally conducive for gradual development of this system
during the next few days as it moves westward to west-northwestward
around 10 mph. By the middle of next week, environmental conditions
are forecast to become unfavorable for further development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Hagen

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Sat Jul 19 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Central Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave located about 1000 miles west-southwest of the
Cabo Verde Islands is producing disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear marginally conducive
for gradual development during the next few days as the system moves
westward to west-northwestward around 10 mph. By the middle of next
week, environmental conditions are forecast to become unfavorable
for further development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Bucci

[abajan]

Formation chance lessening.

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Sun Jul 20 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Central Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave located about 1150 miles east-southeast of Barbados
is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental
conditions appear only marginally conducive for development during
the next day or so as the system moves northwestward around 10 mph.
By the middle of the week, environmental conditions are forecast to
become unfavorable for further development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

$$
Forecaster Jelsema

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sun Jul 20 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Central Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave located about 1000 miles east-southeast of the
Lesser Antilles is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Environmental conditions appear only marginally conducive for
development during the next day or so while the system moves
west-northwestward around 10 mph. By the middle of the week,
environmental conditions are forecast to become unfavorable for
further development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

$$
Forecaster Kelly

[tropicwatch]

Upper level wind shear is looking pretty good this morning. Now it needs convection

https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/windmain.php?&basin=atlantic&sat=wg8&prod=shr&zoom=&time=

[TomballEd]

Upper level wind shear is looking pretty good this morning. Now it needs convection

https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/windmain.php?&basin=atlantic&sat=wg8&prod=shr&zoom=&time=

Looking at the 200 mb U anomaly initialization and forecast, the disturbance is a tiny area of rising air surrounded by a large area of sinking. I'm not particularly well versed in it but it appears the Atlantic is not yet in a favorable phase for MDR development.