Potential development over the Western Caribbean Sea (Is Invest 99L)

[Ubuntwo]

This is the wave the GFS and CMC have been developing in the Caribbean:


Vigorous low-level vorticity for a tropical wave (near 50W/10N)

[Ubuntwo]

Consolidation on the 6z GFS

[abajan]

This is the wave the GFS and CMC have been developing in the Caribbean:
https://i.imgur.com/qe5WXks.gif
...

Wow. If nothing else, that satellite loop certainly shows rotation.

[Travorum]

This is out in fantasy land, but wow:

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/DerekOrtt/status/1853884875549610202

[WaveBreaking]

fantasyland GFS has it pulling a Wilma and then a Lenny

[ChrisH-UK]

I have been following this area the last few days it looks like this will enter the Caribbean and may become a storm, there is a bit of a question whether its is this one or something else that becomes a storm.

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/AndyHazelton/status/1854569173042839989

[Ubuntwo]

12/18z GFS and the ICON develop this system in a trough interaction that forms a CAG.

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/AndyHazelton/status/1854885073390125319

[underthwx]

This is the wave the GFS and CMC have been developing in the Caribbean:
https://i.imgur.com/qe5WXks.gif

Vigorous low-level vorticity for a tropical wave (near 50W/10N)
https://i.imgur.com/jl3SoOE.png

Looks very healthy to me, the season continues!

[cycloneye]

[AJC3]

https://i.imgur.com/cuyAaQx.gif

From the looks of the NHC TWDAT from 1205 UTC, this area of convection
is at the west end of a segment of the ITCZ, while the actual tropical wave
has already moved into the eastern Caribbean:

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A weak tropical wave is near 63W, from 03N to 15N, moving west at
10 to 15 kt. Widely scattered moderate convection is noted in the
eastern Caribbean.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 10N14W to 07N16W. The
ITCZ then extends from 07N16W to 03N35W to 13N57W. Scattered
moderate to locally strong convection is occurring from 10N to 17N
between 46W and 58W.

Looking at visible satellite from this morning, I think an argument can be
made that the wave axis is actually near 61W, beginning to move through
the Windward/southern Leeward islands, and the convection farther west
from 63-66W is simply along a weak marine boundary being ventilated by
strong divergence from the large central Caribbean upper level low.

Moreover, the model/ensemble development in the Caribbean mentioned
in that tweet by Andy Hazelton appears to be in situ (in place), with the
vorticity generated from a developing CAG, rather than a wave moving into
that area. I didn't see any connection between the low spinning up and any
H85 vorticity moving in the the east:




From what I can tell, any disturbed weather and associated vorticity near and east
of the Windwards right now drifts W-NW and dampens out/falls apart.

[gatorcane]

ICON develops:

[chaser1]

Well I won't claim to be sure which is the spark to potentially ignite development as the models are suggesting, but damn just look at that large area of convection blowing up entering the Caribbean!

[cycloneye]

[zzzh]

40kt wind.
Also from Barbados and Martinique radar, you can see some sign of mid level rotation. I feel like this is going to be the seed for that Caribbean storm.

[AJC3]

Looking at visible satellite from this morning, I think an argument can be
made that the wave axis is actually near 61W, beginning to move through
the Windward/southern Leeward islands, and the convection farther west
from 63-66W is simply along a weak marine boundary being ventilated by
strong divergence from the large central Caribbean upper level low.

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Fri Nov 8 2024

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A weak tropical wave is near 63W, from 03N to 15N, moving west at
10 to 15 kt. Widely scattered moderate convection is noted in the
eastern Caribbean.

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Fri Nov 8 2024

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is near 63W/64W, from 15N southward0,
moving westward 10 knots to 15 knots. Precipitation: widely scattered
moderate to isolated strong is from 18N southward between 55W and
75W, from parts of the Atlantic Ocean into the Caribbean Sea.

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Sat Nov 9 2024

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A weak tropical wave is over the eastern Caribbean with axis
along 62W/63W, moving west at 10 to 15 kt. A large cluster of
moderate to strong convection is behind the wave axis affecting
parts of the Lesser Antilles, and covering the waters from 11N
to 15N between 57W and 61W.

TAFB finally repositioned the wave - it went from being at 63W at 1205 UTC
to 63/64W at 1805, and then 62/63W at 0005 UTC. All while moving west
@10-15kt Funny how that works out.

[AJC3]

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Sat Nov 9 2024

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A eastern Caribbean tropical wave is near 65W from south of the
Virgin Islands southward to central Venezuela. It is moving west
around 5 kt. Enhanced by diffluent flow aloft, numerous heavy
showers and scattered strong thunderstorms are occurring near the
Windward Islands.

At least they slowed its forward speed...

[AJC3]

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Sat Nov 9 2024

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 65W/66W, from 18N
southward, moving westward 05 knots to 10 knots. Moderate winds
are within 240 nm to the north of the northernmost point of the
tropical wave; and within 360 nm to the northeast of the
northernmost point of the tropical wave. Moderate to fresh SE
winds are between 60W and the tropical wave. Precipitation:
widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 930 nm to
the east of the tropical wave, and within 270 nm to the west of
the tropical wave.