Tropical Wave in Eastern Atlantic (Is Invest 94L)

[cycloneye]

The Cape Verde season wants to keep going in October.

Far Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave is expected to move westward from the coast of
Africa on Monday or Tuesday. Some development of this system is
possible thereafter as it moves westward or west-northwestward
across the eastern tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

[cycloneye]

Far Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave is expected to move off the west coast of
Africa on Monday or Tuesday. Some development of this system is
possible thereafter while it moves westward or west-northwestward
across the eastern tropical Atlantic. Interests in the Cabo Verde
Islands should monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

[cycloneye]

8 AM TWO:

Far Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave is expected to move off the west coast of Africa on
Monday or Tuesday. Some development of this system is possible
thereafter while it moves westward or west-northwestward across the
eastern tropical Atlantic. The system is expected to move near or
over the Cabo Verde Islands on Wednesday and Thursday, and interests
there should monitor its progress.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

[cycloneye]

Nobody cares about this wave, but if it forms into a TS, it lifts the 2024 count.

8 PM:

A tropical wave is expected to move off the west coast of Africa
in a few days. Some development of this system is possible
thereafter while it moves westward or west-northwestward across the
eastern tropical Atlantic. The system is expected to move near or
over the Cabo Verde Islands on Wednesday and Thursday, and interests
there should monitor its progress.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

[AnnularCane]

After Milton heads out maybe this one will get some more love.

[Teban54]

Nobody cares about this wave, but if it forms into a TS, it lifts the 2024 count.

8 PM:

A tropical wave is expected to move off the west coast of Africa
in a few days. Some development of this system is possible
thereafter while it moves westward or west-northwestward across the
eastern tropical Atlantic. The system is expected to move near or
over the Cabo Verde Islands on Wednesday and Thursday, and interests
there should monitor its progress.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

Probably also because it's currently expected to be weak, partly due to a northerly track.

[cycloneye]

Nadine will not form from this wave.

Far Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave is expected to move off the west coast of Africa in
a couple days. Afterward, environmental conditions appear only
marginally favorable for some limited development of this system
while it moves westward or west-northwestward across the eastern
tropical Atlantic, crossing the Cabo Verde Islands on Thursday or
early Friday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

[cycloneye]

Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave is expected to move off the west coast of Africa
tonight or early Thursday. Afterward, environmental conditions
appear only marginally favorable for some limited development of
this system while it moves westward or west-northwestward across
the eastern tropical Atlantic and through the Cabo Verde Islands on
Friday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

[Teban54]

Another MDR storm that failed to form? This season just doesn't want to perform at all.

Oh wait.

[Teban54]

I wouldn't be surprised to see a slight increase in development chances. Today's 18z GEFS is suddenly a lot more bullish with it:



Here's how the wave looks like:

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Thu Oct 10 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Leslie, located over the central subtropical Atlantic Ocean, and on
Hurricane Milton, located off the east coast of central Florida.

1. Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave that has now emerged off of the west coast of Africa
continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Environmental conditions appear marginal for limited development of
this system while it moves westward or west-northwestward across the
eastern tropical Atlantic and the Cabo Verde Islands on Friday. By
Saturday, upper-level winds are forecast to become less favorable,
and further development is unlikely after that time. Regardless of
development, localized areas of heavy rain are possible across
portions of the Cabo Verde Islands late Thursday through Friday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.


Forecaster Hagen

[cycloneye]

Invest 94L is up