What Other Records or Droughts/Streaks will be Broken during the 2024 NATL Season?

[Beef Stew]

With Beryl already breaking and setting a number of records in early July, I thought it was fitting to ask: what other records, ‘droughts’(events that haven’t occurred in a long time), or other significant and uncommon events will be broken/set/occur this season?

I’ll start with two guesses:

1) A major land falling storm on the US east coast for the first time in 20 years

2) Latest category 4 on record

[Teban54]

A common one that I'm sure others are thinking of: the 6th sub-900 mb Atlantic hurricane, which would be the first in 19 years since Wilma.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

We probably are getting multiple ACE and intensity records broken.

Now, we have the highest ACE of any season on record this time of year. We probably would go the earliest to reach a total of 4 major hurricane days right now.

Seeing 2005's ACE record be broken may not be far-fetched at all.

[Teban54]

Cherry-picking a few things:

Now, we have the highest ACE of any season on record this time of year.

A caveat with this: the ACE-to-date record at this time of the year may be less indicative of overall seasonal activity than one might expect. In the plot below (plot due to Deelan Jariwala, thanks to NotSparta for the mention), you can see that the #2-#6 years with the highest ACE-to-date had a maximum of above-average 137.07 total seasonal ACE, with even two below-average seasons. While 120-130 ACE is still decent for that era, none of them are among the most prolific years that people discuss frequently.

Seeing 2005's ACE record be broken may not be far-fetched at all.

Technically, the Atlantic's ACE record is 1933. It has 13 more ACE than 2005 in HURDAT, which would likely be even higher if the season was observed with 2005's or today's technology.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Cherry-picking a few things:

Now, we have the highest ACE of any season on record this time of year.

A caveat with this: the ACE-to-date record at this time of the year may be less indicative of overall seasonal activity than one might expect. In the plot below (plot due to Deelan Jariwala, thanks to NotSparta for the mention), you can see that the #2-#6 years with the highest ACE-to-date had a maximum of above-average 137.07 total seasonal ACE, with even two below-average seasons. While 120-130 ACE is still decent for that era, none of them are among the most prolific years that people discuss frequently.
https://i.postimg.cc/tCRY1rsj/image.png

Seeing 2005's ACE record be broken may not be far-fetched at all.

Technically, the Atlantic's ACE record is 1933. It has 13 more ACE than 2005 in HURDAT, which would likely be even higher if the season was observed with 2005's or today's technology.

I regularly check Deelan Jariwala's source as it is my go-to for ACE-to-date stats. I think I should've mentioned that. However, the backdrop of 2024 being one of the most favorable seasons ever and possibly the most aggressively-forecasted does add a boost to these outlooks. I stand corrected for 1933.

Most of the last few seasons start with a barrage of weak storms while this started with a strong Cape Verde long-tracker. With the conditions we have, this *may* be a precursor for things to come.

It doesn't mean that having a high ACE early on guarantees a high-output season in the end. But Beryl gave us a massive headstart.

[kevin]

Longest duration as a cat 5 for a single hurricane, current record holder is the 1932 Cuba hurricane (3.6 days) which makes the record almost 100 years old so it's about time.

[Category5Kaiju]

Least active WPAC and EPAC seasons on record

For the Atlantic:

First sub-900 mbar hurricane since Wilma

Hurricane that beats the 1899 hurricane in total ACE

First Florida East Coast major landfall since Jeanne

3 or more Category 5s

Latest major hurricane on record (late November to early December)


TLDR: this will be like the Atlantic version of EPAC’s 2018.

[zal0phus]

Placing my bets on at least one sub-900 MB hurricane occurring this year like everyone else. I'm also calling for a major hurricane hit on southeast Florida. I also feel like a true November Category 5 may occur; not a debatable case like Iota.

[FireRat]

1. Hurricane hit on the East coast of FL, including the Miami/ Ft. Lauderdale area. Hurricane in mind could hit southeast FL from the southeast and maybe parallel the east side of the State, something not seen in a long time

2. Season with the most Caribbean systems in a long time.

3. Nasty season for Cuba, with multiple landfalls, same goes for Jamaica... perhaps most systems affecting the islands in a long time, or year with most on record.

[Category5Kaiju]

Also, I think we'll also have the first direct major hurricane strike on Cuba's Guantanamo Bay in a while. No rhyme or reason for this prediction.

[aspen]

Longest duration as a cat 5 for a single hurricane, current record holder is the 1932 Cuba hurricane (3.6 days) which makes the record almost 100 years old so it's about time.

I’m surprised Irma didn’t break that. I think it had the longest 150+ kt duration of any Atlantic hurricane at least.

This one I agree we have a decent shot at beating. If the MDR/Caribbean is as favorable in peak season as it seems like it’s gonna be, we could very well see any insanely long-lived Cat 5 like Irma. I’ll be surprised if we don’t see at least one 40-50+ ACE storm.

[al78]

Cherry-picking a few things:

Now, we have the highest ACE of any season on record this time of year.

A caveat with this: the ACE-to-date record at this time of the year may be less indicative of overall seasonal activity than one might expect. In the plot below (plot due to Deelan Jariwala, thanks to NotSparta for the mention), you can see that the #2-#6 years with the highest ACE-to-date had a maximum of above-average 137.07 total seasonal ACE, with even two below-average seasons. While 120-130 ACE is still decent for that era, none of them are among the most prolific years that people discuss frequently.
https://i.postimg.cc/tCRY1rsj/image.png

Seeing 2005's ACE record be broken may not be far-fetched at all.

Technically, the Atlantic's ACE record is 1933. It has 13 more ACE than 2005 in HURDAT, which would likely be even higher if the season was observed with 2005's or today's technology.

A better indicator of an active season to come is whether a tropical storm forms in the MDR prior to 1st August. Years when this has happened have all seen at least average activity, most have been above-average and several have been hyper-active. It could be said that a named storm in the MDR in June or July is a sufficient condition for at least an average season.

[al78]

Longest duration as a cat 5 for a single hurricane, current record holder is the 1932 Cuba hurricane (3.6 days) which makes the record almost 100 years old so it's about time.

I’m surprised Irma didn’t break that. I think it had the longest 150+ kt duration of any Atlantic hurricane at least.

This one I agree we have a decent shot at beating. If the MDR/Caribbean is as favorable in peak season as it seems like it’s gonna be, we could very well see any insanely long-lived Cat 5 like Irma. I’ll be surprised if we don’t see at least one 40-50+ ACE storm.

I imagine it is very hard to break that record given that very intense hurricanes tend to go through eyewall replacement cycles which virtually always cause the storm to drop a category or two temporarily. Ivan in 2004 had an ideal track for breaking that record but it fluctuated between category 4 and 5 several times and land interaction with Jamaica/Cuba didn't help.

[al78]

Highest August and/or September ACE index.

[Hurricane2022]

Highest August and/or September ACE index.

I'm waiting to see if this will be reflected in the TSR forecast tomorrow...

[Teban54]

Came across this post when looking at the Talkin' Tropics archives earlier today... Of course, what I'm gonna say is exactly fitting for the title.

 https://x.com/FloridaTropics1/status/1830313000508498155

This is the first year since 1997 that a named storm has not formed in the Atlantic basin between August 21 and September 1. Pretty impressive statistic and one that you would not expect in what was supposed to be a very active season. #HurricaneSeason2024

[Teban54]

When we said "records of droughts", I'm sure we didn't expect 2024 to break a record of droughts of cyclone formation...

 https://x.com/philklotzbach/status/1830918338458923381

[CFLHurricane]

When we said "records of droughts", I'm sure we didn't expect 2024 to break a record of droughts of cyclone formation...

Amen. May each wave now through November hobble their way to the EPac leaving our hurricane shutters and supplies to gather cobwebs. I predict this drought will continue and the only storms we’ll be tracking are from stalled fronts in October.

[MEANINGLESS_NUMBERS]

The Atlantic did not have concurrent storms in July *or* August. That strikes me as unusual.

You have to go all the way back to June to see concurrent storms (and that was the weakest little 24 hour slop).

[Category5Kaiju]

With some of the track and intensity guidances regarding 92L, it *looks* like whoever said that the Tampa Shield will fall has an increasingly likely chance of being correct.