2023 EPAC Season

[cycloneye]

It looks like this 2023 season will be active or very active depending on how ENSO will be. The 2022 season was active with the numbers 17/10/4 with La Niña present and Mexico had some landfalls of hurricanes. If ENSO turns out to be warm neutral or El Niño, it may be a very busy one with some longtrackers.

Countdown to start of season

Names to be used for the 2023 season:
























Link to the ENSO Updates thread





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[Astromanía]

That name list scares me

[cycloneye]

Will Fernanda does a repeat of the 2017 one being a major cane and again as a longtracker?

[cycloneye]

These are the suplemental names if there are more after Zelda.

[cycloneye]

I know is nothing on January 2nd but is still interesting to look at the first blob of 2023 where it sits at the monsoon trough.

[AnnularCane]

Kissing blobs.

[cycloneye]

Last year on January 20th, invest 90E was up for an area NE of Hawaii but didn't form into a sub or tropical cyclone, so anything can happen between now and May 15th. The earliest formation of a tropical cyclone in the Eastern Pacific basin since the satellite era began in 1966 was TD One-E on April 25, 2020 and the earliest first TS was Adrian on May 10, 2017.

[Hurricane2022]

Last year on January 20th, invest 90E was up for an area NE of Hawaii but didn't form into a sub or tropical cyclone, so anything can happen between now and May 15th. The earliest formation of a tropical cyclone in the Eastern Pacific basin since the satellite era began in 1966 was TD One-E on April 25, 2020 and the earliest first TS was Andres on May 9, 2021.

[cycloneye]

Last year on January 20th, invest 90E was up for an area NE of Hawaii but didn't form into a sub or tropical cyclone, so anything can happen between now and May 15th. The earliest formation of a tropical cyclone in the Eastern Pacific basin since the satellite era began in 1966 was TD One-E on April 25, 2020 and the earliest first TS was Andres on May 9, 2021.

Yep.

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1391408279780220928

[Yellow Evan]

[Div]

All I will say for now is if you want an active season that exceeds last year (which got 94 ACE) without an El Niño:

-Hope for +PNA/TNH and -NPO(?) to warm up the Pacific horseshoe and cool off the waters near the Aleutians. This could reverse the -PDO, and in extreme circumstances set up a prolonged period of +PDO (2014-18 is the poster child of this).

-Hope for a -AMO return. This probably won’t happen for another decade or so but this would result in rising motion over Central America especially in non-El Niño years.

If neither happens, 100 ACE is probably the ceiling unless there’s a Niño which are not most years. If there is a first year La Niña and we remain +AMO/-PDO, ACE probably falls in the 50-80 range. Otherwise, probably 100 ACE is the ceiling.

Most of this still applies from last year even if 2022 defied the odds with 122 ACE. There’s probably more of a chance of PDO reversal than last year but I still wouldn’t count on it. Even an El Niño is just the difference between 135 ACE (if that) and 95 ACE most likely if accompanied by nothing else particularly favorable.

[cycloneye]

[Div]

All I will say for now is if you want an active season that exceeds last year (which got 94 ACE) without an El Niño:

-Hope for +PNA/TNH and -NPO(?) to warm up the Pacific horseshoe and cool off the waters near the Aleutians. This could reverse the -PDO, and in extreme circumstances set up a prolonged period of +PDO (2014-18 is the poster child of this).

-Hope for a -AMO return. This probably won’t happen for another decade or so but this would result in rising motion over Central America especially in non-El Niño years.

If neither happens, 100 ACE is probably the ceiling unless there’s a Niño which are not most years. If there is a first year La Niña and we remain +AMO/-PDO, ACE probably falls in the 50-80 range. Otherwise, probably 100 ACE is the ceiling.

Most of this still applies from last year even if 2022 defied the odds with 122 ACE. There’s probably more of a chance of PDO reversal than last year but I still wouldn’t count on it. Even an El Niño is just the difference between 135 ACE (if that) and 95 ACE most likely if accompanied by nothing else particularly favorable.

You think like 2021 that had 19/8/2 with 94 ACE?

[Yellow Evan]

2001 and 2012 are the most obvious analogs if Nino fails. Probably in the Atlantic too tbh.

[Kingarabian]

2001 and 2012 are the most obvious analogs if Nino fails. Probably in the Atlantic too tbh.

Agree but if El Nino fails to form and we end up with a 4th year -ENSO, then 2013 could be a better analog than 2012.

[dexterlabio]

2001 and 2012 are the most obvious analogs if Nino fails. Probably in the Atlantic too tbh.

Agree but if El Nino fails to form and we end up with a 4th year -ENSO, then 2013 could be a better analog than 2012.

2012 was almost El Nino wasn't it?

[Iceresistance]

2001 and 2012 are the most obvious analogs if Nino fails. Probably in the Atlantic too tbh.

Agree but if El Nino fails to form and we end up with a 4th year -ENSO, then 2013 could be a better analog than 2012.

2012 was almost El Nino wasn't it?

No, 2012 was a strong La Nina

[zzzh]

2012 was cold neutral

[cycloneye]

2012 season has 17/10/5 in a cold neutral state of ENSO.

[Category5Kaiju]

Wait, no, wasn't 2012 a warm neutral year? At least during ASO primetime? I thought it was 2013 that was cold neutral

[zzzh]

https://psl.noaa.gov/enso/mei/
I suggest to use the MEI instead of ONI to evaluate ENSO since the MEI focuses on the atmosphere response while ONI only focuses on SSTA.
2012 was cold neutral per the MEI.

[dexterlabio]

The reason I thought 2012 was warm neutral is because I can still remember clearly how people thought it would be an El Niño year, and almost all indicators pointed that an El Niño would appear but the prediction busted. But in my mind I thought that 2012 only fell short of El Niño. Didn't know it went as cold as cold neutral.