Tropical Wave Near the Cabo Verde Islands (Is Invest 94L)

[cycloneye]

2 PM TWO:

Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave is forecast to move off the west coast of Africa
early next week. Some gradual development of the system is possible
during the middle of next week while it moves generally westward
across the far eastern tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

[Category5Kaiju]

Modeling seems to suggest that this could be a fish storm and turn north relatively soon after forming it seems? Could be wrong though

[aspen]

Modeling seems to suggest that this could be a fish storm and turn north relatively soon after forming it seems? Could be wrong though

It comes off at a pretty high latitude, which could send it into sub-par SSTs and dry stable air pretty quickly. Probably not much potential unless it makes it a little further west.

[cycloneye]

[NXStumpy_Robothing]

https://i.imgur.com/MEvWrSd.gif

If that massive wad of convection doesn't pave the way for a future TW to find a pocket of favorable conditions (moisture-wise, at least), I don't know what will.

[Iceresistance]

https://i.imgur.com/MEvWrSd.gif

Would that make the list for one of the largest TW's ever seen on Satellite? it's HUGE!

[cycloneye]

4. Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave is forecast to move off the west coast of Africa
early next week. Some gradual development of the system is possible
during the middle of next week while it moves generally westward
across the far eastern tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

[Iceresistance]

He's thinking that this will be a fish storm. (#5)

 https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1563543897800085504

[ElectricStorm]

4. Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave is forecast to move off the west coast of Africa in
a couple of days. Some gradual development of the system is possible
after that time while it moves generally westward across the far
eastern tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

[cycloneye]

Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave is forecast to move off the west coast of Africa
Monday or Monday night. Some gradual development of the system is
possible after that time while it moves generally westward across
the far eastern tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

[cycloneye]

12z UKMET.

[cycloneye]

Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave is forecast to move off the west coast of Africa
Monday night. Some gradual development of the system is possible
after that time while it moves generally westward across the far
eastern tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

[aspen]

18z GFS gets a weak to moderate TS out of this.

EDIT: keeps this alive the entire run and makes this a Cat 2/3 in the subtropics in the 300+ hour range. Classic Happy Hour.

[cycloneye]

4. Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave is forecast to move off the west coast of Africa
Monday night. Some gradual development of the system is possible
after that time while it moves generally westward across the far
eastern tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

[galaxy401]

Probably see 93L soon.

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Mon Aug 29 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave is forecast to move off the west coast of Africa
late today or tonight. Some gradual development of the system is
possible after that time while it moves generally westward across
the far eastern tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

[MHC Tracking]

06z GFS shows short term TCG from this AOI, with a likely TS on august 31. With how broad it is, I don't really see that happening, but perhaps a chance raise is incoming at 8.

[cycloneye]

3. Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave is forecast to move off the west coast of Africa
this evening or early Tuesday. Some gradual development of this
system is possible after that time while it moves generally
westward to west-northwestward across the far eastern tropical
Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

[cycloneye]

8 PM TWO:

Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave accompanied by a broad area of low pressure is
located near the west coast of Africa. This system is forecast to
move offshore tonight, and some gradual development is possible
over the next few days while it moves generally westward to
west-northwestward. The system could become a short-lived
tropical depression over the far eastern Atlantic waters during
the next few days. By late this week, the disturbance is forecast
to move over cooler waters and further development is not likely
after that time. Regardless of development, the system could
bring locally heavy rainfall to portions of the Cabo Verde
Islands by Wednesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

[ElectricStorm]

This will likely be tagged as 93L pretty soon. I think this has a good chance to become a weak/moderate TS but probably not much more than that, but you never know... Might even have a chance to steal Danielle from 91L if it gets going quicker

[cycloneye]

8 AM TWO:

Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave accompanied by a broad area of low pressure is
located just off the west coast of Africa. Some gradual development
is possible, and the system could become a short-lived tropical
depression over the far eastern Atlantic during the next few days.
By late this week, the disturbance is forecast to move over cooler
waters and further development is not expected. Regardless of
development, the system could bring locally heavy rainfall to
portions of the Cabo Verde Islands by Wednesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.