Small area of low pressure ~650 miles E of Bermuda (Is Invest 92L)

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Message
Author
MarioProtVI
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 675
Age: 23
Joined: Sun Sep 29, 2019 7:33 pm
Location: New Jersey

Small area of low pressure ~650 miles E of Bermuda (Is Invest 92L)

#1 Postby MarioProtVI » Sat Aug 27, 2022 12:32 pm

Anyone notice the small area of low pressure that’s well east of Bermuda. It looks like one of those things that can quickly spin up and ASCAT/visible indicate some clear low-level spin…
1 likes   

NXStumpy_Robothing
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 326
Age: 23
Joined: Fri Jun 05, 2020 11:50 pm
Location: North Georgia

Re: Small area of low pressure ~650 miles E of Bermuda

#2 Postby NXStumpy_Robothing » Sat Aug 27, 2022 12:52 pm

MarioProtVI wrote:Anyone notice the small area of low pressure that’s well east of Bermuda. It looks like one of those things that can quickly spin up and ASCAT/visible indicate some clear low-level spin…

Yeah, had noticed it and mentioned this little spinny vortex to a few fellow tropics watchers last night. Shouldn't have long to live but it's got a very nice vorticity profile, especially around 850 mb. Might be a shortie that steals Danielle away from the Gulf mess, our MDR monsoon trough, and our Caribbean wave.
0 likes   
Undergraduate Meteorology Student, Georgia Institute of Technology

User avatar
InfernoFlameCat
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1966
Age: 21
Joined: Mon Dec 14, 2020 10:52 am
Location: Buford, GA

Re: Small area of low pressure ~650 miles E of Bermuda

#3 Postby InfernoFlameCat » Sat Aug 27, 2022 1:02 pm

It’s like that system in 2020 that was in late November. It had convection over a small well defined swirl. Was never named or anything though. This one is also incredibly small and weak.
0 likes   
I am by no means a professional. DO NOT look at my forecasts for official information or make decisions based on what I post.

Goal: to become a registered expert over tropical and subtropical cyclones.

LarryWx
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5791
Joined: Sun Sep 07, 2003 2:04 pm
Location: GA

Re: Small area of low pressure ~650 miles E of Bermuda

#4 Postby LarryWx » Sat Aug 27, 2022 1:03 pm

12Z UKMET has it:


NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 78 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 78 : 36.4N 55.8W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 31.08.2022 84 36.3N 56.0W 1012 22
1200UTC 31.08.2022 96 36.6N 55.5W 1010 26
0000UTC 01.09.2022 108 38.2N 55.6W 1010 25
1200UTC 01.09.2022 120 CEASED TRACKING
4 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Argcane
Tropical Low
Tropical Low
Posts: 22
Age: 24
Joined: Wed Aug 19, 2020 12:52 pm
Location: Patagonia/Argentina

Re: Small area of low pressure ~650 miles E of Bermuda

#5 Postby Argcane » Sat Aug 27, 2022 5:17 pm

That's a tiny (and tight) circulation :lol:
2 likes   

BobHarlem
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1668
Joined: Thu Oct 20, 2005 6:11 pm

Re: Small area of low pressure ~650 miles E of Bermuda

#6 Postby BobHarlem » Sat Aug 27, 2022 6:42 pm

This is 20/10 on the 8pm outlook now.
0 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 139596
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: Small area of low pressure ~650 miles E of Bermuda

#7 Postby cycloneye » Sat Aug 27, 2022 6:42 pm

Central Atlantic:
Shower activity is showing signs of organization in association
with a small low pressure area located about 600 miles east of
Bermuda. Some slow development of this system could occur during
the next two to three days while the low meanders over the central
Atlantic. After that tine, conditions are expected to become less
favorable for development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent..
2 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
Teban54
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1983
Joined: Sat May 19, 2018 1:19 pm

Re: Small area of low pressure ~650 miles E of Bermuda

#8 Postby Teban54 » Sat Aug 27, 2022 6:49 pm

NXStumpy_Robothing wrote:
MarioProtVI wrote:Anyone notice the small area of low pressure that’s well east of Bermuda. It looks like one of those things that can quickly spin up and ASCAT/visible indicate some clear low-level spin…

Yeah, had noticed it and mentioned this little spinny vortex to a few fellow tropics watchers last night. Shouldn't have long to live but it's got a very nice vorticity profile, especially around 850 mb. Might be a shortie that steals Danielle away from the Gulf mess, our MDR monsoon trough, and our Caribbean wave.

If this, the Gulf system and the second MDR wave all develop quickly enough, our Central Atlantic system will get full on Beta'ed and be named Gaston, rather than Danielle. :lol:

Very unlikely to happen, but something fun to think about.
0 likes   

User avatar
Iceresistance
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 8931
Age: 20
Joined: Sat Oct 10, 2020 9:45 am
Location: Tecumseh, OK/Norman, OK

Re: Small area of low pressure ~650 miles E of Bermuda

#9 Postby Iceresistance » Sat Aug 27, 2022 6:55 pm

0 likes   
Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

User avatar
aspen
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 8061
Joined: Sat Oct 12, 2019 7:10 pm
Location: Connecticut, USA

Re: Small area of low pressure ~650 miles E of Bermuda

#10 Postby aspen » Sat Aug 27, 2022 7:30 pm

The fact that there’s this tiny little thing trying to spin up out of nowhere is a strong sign that the Atlantic is waking up and the MJO is in a favorable position. Not sure this’ll get named — other similar areas haven’t — but it might be a sign of what’s to come.
2 likes   
Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 5/15/2018 Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20 Elsa '21 Henri '21 Ida '21

I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 139596
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: Small area of low pressure ~650 miles E of Bermuda (Is Invest 92L)

#11 Postby cycloneye » Sat Aug 27, 2022 8:07 pm

2 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here


Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: Brent, cainjamin, Camerooski, chaser1, Cpv17, gatorcane, grannyboo, LarryWx, South Texas Storms, Wampadawg, weatherSnoop and 115 guests